Sentiment – Risk Appetite and Expected U.S. Equity Market Performance U.S. equity fund managers are taking on more risk again after September’s decline, but they remain cautious about near-term returns, with rates, fiscal policy and geopolitics clouding the outlook. Image: S&P Global Market Intelligence
Investor Sentiment – U.S. Market Greed/Fear Index At 56.28, the Greed and Fear Index remains in neutral territory, far from panic or euphoria. If markets hold steady through earnings season, investors could get a window to add exposure in the weeks ahead. Image: Real Investment Advice
Sentiment Indicator and Stock Positioning Goldman Sachs’ U.S. Equity Sentiment Indicator has slipped to -1.3. Historically, similar readings have been followed by an average 2.0% gain for the S&P 500 over the next month. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
AAII Sentiment Survey The S&P 500 is setting records, but U.S. retail investors remain far from bullish. The AAII bull-bear spread has barely moved into positive territory, leaving sentiment, and potentially stocks, room to climb. Image: The Daily Chartbook
Fear & Greed Index – Investor Sentiment At 38, the Fear & Greed Index remains in fear territory, not panic. Better news could help U.S. stocks push higher. Image: Cable News Network
NAAIM Exposure Index – Investor Sentiment With the NAAIM Exposure Index at 86.76, active managers remain firmly bullish on U.S. stocks, keeping equity exposure high without reaching euphoric levels. The National Association of Active Investment Managers Exposure Index tracks the two-week average of U.S. equity exposure reported by NAAIM members. Image: The Daily Chartbook
Earnings Sentiment – S&P 500, STOXX 600, Topix, MSCI EM Analysts have raised their S&P 500 earnings outlook in recent weeks, with resilient profits lifting market sentiment. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Consumer Sentiment Index and Subsequent 12-Month S&P 500 Returns Bad moods can be good news for stocks. When consumer confidence sinks, as it is today, pessimism may already be priced in, leaving markets room to rally. Image: J.P. Morgan Asset Management
Sentiment Indicator and Stock Positioning Goldman Sachs’ U.S. Equity Sentiment Indicator has slipped to -0.9. After similar readings, the S&P 500 has historically averaged a 0.5% gain over the following month. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Different Market Sentiment Indicators Current market sentiment indicators are stuck in neutral, with bullish conviction matching bearish caution. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Earnings Sentiment (Analyst Upgrades Minus Downgrades Across Markets) Across markets, upgrades are still outpacing downgrades. For the S&P 500, solid earnings expectations and resilient profits are easing recession worries and lifting investor optimism. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research