Chinese Yuan (USD/CNY) and Tariffs

Chinese Yuan (USD/CNY) and Tariffs Trade-sensitive Chinese yuan could move lower with tariffs headlines. Image: Wells Fargo Investment Institute

Volatility Across All Asset Classes

Volatility Across All Asset Classes This chart shows the current high correlation of implied volatility across all asset classes to U.S. Treasuries (MOVE). Image: Arbor Research & Trading LLC

S&P 500 Around Past Yield Curve Inversions

S&P 500 Around Past Yield Curve Inversions Another interesting chart from J.P. Morgan showing the median move in the S&P 500 around past yield curve inversions and the market peak. Image: J.P. Morgan

Liquidity in U.S. Equity Futures

Liquidity in U.S. Equity Futures Liquidity in U.S. equity futures collapsed in early 2018. It has remained at very low levels. The lack of liquidity could lead to violent market moves. Image: Deutsche Bank

Global Manufacturing PMI and MSCI World Index

Global Manufacturing PMI and MSCI World Index The chart shows a pretty good correlation between Global Manufacturing PMI and the MSCI World Index. Stocks and PMI tend to move together. Image: Charles Schwab

When Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) Outperform?​

When Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) Outperform? The chart shows that Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) usually outperform regular Treasuries when the 10-year breakeven inflation rate is below 2%. The 10-year breakeven inflation rate is a market-based measure of expected inflation over the next 10 years. Image: Movement Capital LLC

U.S. Recession Probabilities Over the Next Year from the Yield Curve

U.S. Recession Probabilities Over the Next Year from the Yield Curve Deutsche Bank has calculated the U.S. recession probabilities over the next year, using the slope of various yield curves. PCA (Principal Component Analysis) is used to estimate the effects of yield curve movements. Image: Deutsche Bank

Earnings Matter, Over the Long Run

Earnings Matter, Over the Long Run Over the long run, equities move with earnings. Currently, there is a big gap between U.S. and Europe earnings. As Warren Buffett said: “for 240 years, it’s been a terrible mistake to bet against America.” You may also like “Global Earnings since 2006.” Image: Cullen Roche