U.S. Business Cycle Indicator

U.S. Business Cycle Indicator The Morgan Stanley’s cyclical indicator is still in “downturn.” The entry into the “downturn” phase suggests lower returns for stocks and risky assets. Image: Morgan Stanley Research

Equity Market Driven by Bonds Not Profits

Equity Market Driven by Bonds Not Profits The chart shows a widening gap between cyclicals and bond proxies. It is clearly a cyclical bear market within a bull market, as during the dotcom bubble. Image: Societe Generale Cross Asset Research

Lower Returns for Stocks in the Next 12 Months?

Lower Returns for Stocks in the Next 12 Months? Morgan Stanley’s cyclical indicator is flagging “downturn.” The yield curve’s slope, debt issuance, consumer confidence, economic and financial markets data are aggregated in Morgan Stanley’s cyclical indicator. The entry into the “downturn” phase suggests lower returns for stocks and risky assets in the next 12 months. Image:…

Investment Legend Howard Marks on Mastering the Market Cycle

Howard Marks: Pattern Recognition In Markets, Portfolio Positioning and Market Cycles (2018) Howard Marks speaks at UCLA Anderson School of Management with Alfred E. Osborne about cyclical indicators and historic market patterns to find opportunities. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6ATUoZ6qjpI