Valuation – MSCI World P/E

Valuation – MSCI World P/E Global equity valuations appear expensive, even based on EPS including the recovery. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Prediction Market Probability That Democrats Have Control Following 2020 Election

Prediction Market Probability That Democrats Have Control Following 2020 Election According to Goldman Sachs, the odds of a “blue wave” in November have risen and could lift the effective S&P 500 tax rate from 18% back to 26%, reducing the 2021 EPS forecast from $170 to $150. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

U.S. Buybacks

U.S. Buybacks Goldman Sachs expects buybacks to fall by 50% during 2020 compared with 2019 levels, suggesting slower EPS growth and less support for stock prices. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Implied Trailing 12-Month Buybacks

Implied Trailing 12-Month Buybacks Goldman Sachs expects a sharp decline in buybacks in 2020 and 2021, suggesting less support for stock prices and slower EPS growth. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

U.S. Consumer Confidence and CEO Confidence

U.S. Consumer Confidence and CEO Confidence The trade war keeps weighing on CEO confidence, which is near record lows, while consumer confidence has remained relatively strong. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Lumber Prices Are a Great Leading Indicator of Future Earnings

Lumber Prices Are a Great Leading Indicator of Future Earnings This chart suggests that lumber prices give a good forecast of where the stock market is going. When lumber prices fall over a 12-month period, then EPS follows 6 months later. Although there is no immediate recession on the horizon, a market downturn is possible. Image:…