Search Results for: outlook

Global Yield Curves Global flattening yield curves sound the alarm about the economic outlook. Image: Capital Economics

New York Fed Probability of Recession in Next 12 Months since 1990 When an inverted yield curve occurs, short-term interest rates exceed long-term rates. It suggests that the long-term economic outlookis poor and that the yields offered by long-term fixed income securities will continue to decline. Since 1962, no recession has occurred without an inverted…

Yield Curve Inversion, How Long Until The Recession? In recent history, once the 10-Year minus 3-Month Treasury yield spread is negative and hits 10 consecutive days, it persists for weeks/months. When an inverted yield curve occurs, short-term interest rates exceed long-term rates. It suggests that the long-term economic outlook is poor and that the yields offered…

Societe Generale’s Chart of Swan Risks This chart shows the downside and upside risks to the growth outlook. Biggest risks (black swan): protectionism/trade wars (25%), and European policy uncertainty (20%) Image: Societe Generale Cross Asset Research

What Indicators to Watch for Signs a U.S. Recession Is Coming? 1) In recent history, a recession occurs about 12 to 18 months after the spread between the 30-year and the 3-month treasury yields turns negative (red arrow). When an inverted yield curve occurs, short-term interest rates exceed long-term rates. It suggests that the long-term…

Germany: GDP Growth Composition Since 2013 In 2019Q1, there is a slight rebound in the German economy but the outlook remains gloomy. Image: Oxford Economics

One of the Best Yield Curves to Predict a Recession is Coming The spread between the 30-year and the 3-month treasury yields is one of the best recession signal of all the yield spreads. In recent history, a recession occurs about 12 to 18 months after the yield curve inverts. When an inverted yield curve…

Yield Curve vs. Real Fed Funds Rate In modern history, every recession was preceded by an inverted yield curve and high real interest rates. When an inverted yield curve occurs, short-term interest rates exceed long-term rates. It suggests that the long-term economic outlook is poor and that the yields offered by long-term fixed income securities will…

BlackRock Geopolitical Risk Indicator for Global Trade Tensions The recent decline of the indicator suggests that investors may be more complacent about the risk and impact of trade conflicts. Source: BlackRock Investment Institute – Global Investment Outlook Q2 2019