U.S. Federal Debt

U.S. Federal Debt A potential warning sign for the U.S. economy, as economic growth in Japan and Italy came to a halt after their debt-to-GDP ratios exceeded 100%. Image: Piper Sandler

S&P 500 Sector Expectations

S&P 500 Sector Expectations Chart suggesting quarantines end in June and economic growth recovers to means, based on consumer searches, economic data and policy uncertainty. Image: Arbor Research & Trading LLC

Business and Industrial Sentiment vs. U.S. GDP

Business and Industrial Sentiment vs. U.S. GDP Chart suggesting that business and industrial surveys have not explained U.S. economic growth over the past decade (R² = 0). Image: Arbor Research & Trading LLC

Momentum to Value Rotation

Momentum to Value Rotation The rotation into value suggests a rebound in global economic growth, not a recession. Image: BofA Merrill Lynch US Equity & US Quant Strategy

Number of DM and EM Central Banks Easing Each Month

Number of DM and EM Central Banks Easing Each Month Currently, most of the world’s central banks are easing, to boost money supply in the economy and stimulate economic growth. Image: J.P. Morgan

World’s Central Banks Are Cutting Rates

World’s Central Banks Are Cutting Rates World’s central banks are lowering interest rates, in order to boost money supply in the economy and stimulate economic growth. Image: Charles Schwab

U.S. Yield Curve vs. Recessions

U.S. Yield Curve vs. Recessions The chart shows the 10-year Treasury yield minus Fed funds rate yield curve and recessions. Historically, a flat or inverted yield curve is associated with slow economic growth or recessions. The longer the yield curve stays inverted, the better it predicts recession. A Fed rate cut similar to 1995 could…

U.S. Fiscal Stimulus as a Percent of GDP

U.S. Fiscal Stimulus as a Percent of GDP The chart shows the impact of the Trump fiscal stimulus on U.S. economic growth until 2021. You may also like “Despite Full Employment, Why Real GDP Should Stay Above Potential GDP?“  Image: ClearBridge Investments

NFIB Small Business Optimism Index

NFIB Small Business Optimism Index The Small Business Optimism Index is driving economic growth. It is a good indicator of the health of small businesses in the U.S.. Image: Ned Davis Research