10Y-2Y Yield Curve Inversion Until U.S. Recession Starts

10Y-2Y Yield Curve Inversion Until U.S. Recession Starts An inverted yield curve doesn’t always mean that a recession is imminent. But historically, a sustained yield curve inversion has been a good indicator of recession. Image: Legg Mason

Yield Curve and Banks

Yield Curve and Banks A steeper yield curve helps banks to borrow more cheaply and lend at higher rates of interest. Image: Morgan Stanley

10Y-2Y Yield Curve Inversion vs. S&P 500 Peaks

10Y-2Y Yield Curve Inversion vs. S&P 500 Peaks Chart suggesting that the S&P 500 Index should not peak until June 2020. In recent history, the S&P 500 Index peaks 10 months on average after the 10Y-2Y yield curve inverts. Image: Jeroen Blokland

Yield Curves Inversions: 100-Year View

Yield Curves Inversions: 100-Year View This chart shows that over the past 100 years, some recessions have occurred without yield curve inversion. The yield curve is one recession indicator among many others. Image: Macrobond

10Y-3M Yield Curve Inversion and S&P 500 Operating EPS

10Y-3M Yield Curve Inversion and S&P 500 Operating EPS The inversion of the yield curve between 3-month and 10-year Treasurys is not good news for S&P 500 operating EPS  (90D means 3-month T-bill). The 50 day moving average removes false signals since 1967. Image: Stifel