Search Results for: Fed rate cut

U.S. 10-Year/2-Year Yield Curve and Recession After the first Fed rate cut, a steepening of the U.S. 2-Year/10-Year spread could suggest a recession is coming. Image: UBS

Conference Board U.S. LEI and 6-Month S&P 500 Forward Return A Fed rate cut is good for the S&P 500 when the Conference Board U.S. LEI is positive. Image: Fundstrat Global Advisors, LLC

U.S. Yield Curve vs. Recessions The chart shows the 10-year Treasury yield minus Fed funds rate yield curve and recessions. Historically, a flat or inverted yield curve is associated with slow economic growth or recessions. The longer the yield curve stays inverted, the better it predicts recession. A Fed rate cut similar to 1995 could…

U.S. Recessions since 1957 This chart shows that almost every Fed rate cut has been associated with a recession. Image: John P. Hussman

What is the Biggest Risk Right Now for Investors? What is the Biggest Risk Right Now for Investors? The risk of a Fed policy error The probability of a Fed rate cut in July 2019 is now 84.6%. Image: Bloomberg

U.S. Economic Forecasts Deutsche Bank forecasts resilient US growth through 2026 and 2027, but expects core inflation to stay well above the Fed’s 2% target and unemployment at 4.4%. Resilient growth sounds good, but persistent inflation might complicate rate cuts. Image: Deutsche Bank

S&P 500 Dividend Payers / Non-Payers Ratio Amidst 2025’s market volatility, dividend stocks emerge as a compelling investment, offering both steady income and growth potential while serving as a robust tool for portfolio diversification. Image: Ned Davis Research

Long History of U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yields Despite expectations of rate cuts, U.S. interest rates could move in either direction, depending on inflation and Fed decisions. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research Click the Image to Enlarge

U.S. Money Market Funds Following the Fed’s first rate cut, U.S. money market funds typically experience outflows within 12 months as investors rebalance portfolios and reassess risk in response to changing interest rates and market conditions. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

GWIM T-Bill Flows In light of the Fed’s recent rate cuts, BofA’s private clients are actively selling T-bills and strategically positioning themselves for potential gains in other asset classes. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy

Treasury QT The current context suggests that QT can continue even as the Fed begins to cut interest rates, provided that these cuts do not push the policy rate below what is considered neutral. Image: Deutsche Bank