U.S. Total Debt to GDP Ratio and Economic Growth by Cycle This nice chart clearly shows that U.S. GDP is weaker today than in the past, despite higher debt levels. Image: Real Investment Advice
Contribution of Consumption to China’s GDP Growth This chart shows that consumption is the primary driver of China’s economic growth. You may also like “China Real GDP Growth Projection.” Image: ANZ Research
U.S. Initial Unemployment Claims and U.S. GDP There is a pretty good correlation between U.S. initial unemployment claims and U.S. GDP. Initial unemployment claims could suggest an acceleration of U.S. GDP in Q3 2019. Click on the Image to Enlarge
U.S. Twin Deficits (% of GDP) Lead the U.S. Dollar Broad REER by 18 Months The chart suggests that the U.S. dollar should weaken over time. You may also like “U.S. Twin Deficits (% of GDP) Lead Real Trade Weighted Dollar Index by Two Years” and “U.S. Dollar and Relative Growth (GDP Spread)” and “U.S. Budget…
U.S. Dollar and Relative Growth (GDP Spread) The chart shows that the U.S. Dollar REER is about relative growth (U.S. GDP – Other Developed Market GDP YoY). You may also like “U.S. Twin Deficits (% of GDP) Lead Real Trade Weighted Dollar Index by Two Years” and “U.S. Twin Deficits (% of GDP) Lead U.S.…
U.S. Fiscal Stimulus as a Percent of GDP The chart shows the impact of the Trump fiscal stimulus on U.S. economic growth until 2021. You may also like “Despite Full Employment, Why Real GDP Should Stay Above Potential GDP?“ Image: ClearBridge Investments
How Have Real Personal Consumption Expenditures Declined Ahead Of Every Recession? Consumer spending drives the US economy. Historically, Real Personal Consumption Expenditures, which accounts for about 70% of GDP, decline before a recession. That’s not the case today. So, a recession may not be imminent in this late-cycle expansion.
Real Fed Funds Rate Is Very Low Compared to Previous Business Cycles Today, Real Fed funds rate is very low compared to previous business cycles and well below real GDP. If history helps us to predict the future, then this cycle should not end any time soon. Each line begins with the peak of the…
A Widening of High Yield Credit Spreads Is Very Useful to Predict a Recession Like a yield curve inversion and real interest rates above real GDP, a widening of high yield credit spreads is very useful to predict a recession. At the present time, the bond market is not concerned about credit risk.
Ranking Developed Economies by Key Growth Metrics Currently, the United States is ranked numer one in real GDP, core CPI and consumer confidence. Image: Arbor Research & Trading
Global Growth Economy This chart shows the global real GDP growth and the long-term growth momentum. It’s never paid to bet against America. Picture Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management