U.S. Recession Probabilities Over the Next Year from the Yield Curve Deutsche Bank has calculated the U.S. recession probabilities over the next year, using the slope of various yield curves. PCA (Principal Component Analysis) is used to estimate the effects of yield curve movements. Image: Deutsche Bank
Earnings Matter, Over the Long Run Over the long run, equities move with earnings. Currently, there is a big gap between U.S. and Europe earnings. As Warren Buffett said: “for 240 years, it’s been a terrible mistake to bet against America.” You may also like “Global Earnings since 2006.” Image: Cullen Roche
Do Central Banks’ Negative Rates Work in Europe? Not really. Actually, negative rates distort economies and leave little room to maneuver in the next recession. Secondly, extremely low interest rates are also bad for European banks, like Deutsche Bank, which in turn is bad for economic growth. It’s a feedback loop which could lead to…
How is the Relationship Between the Fed and the Stock Market? The stock market influences the real economy of goods and services through the wealth effect. And the Fed responds to stock price movements only to the extent justified by their impact on the macro economy. A picture is worth a thousand words, and Hedgeye shows…
FAQ Most Frequent Questions and Answers Membership Why Subscribe? Stay on the top of the US stock market Isabelnet subscription prepares you for what is ahead with advanced forecasting models.. Exclusive short- and long-term forecasts Our models alert our members with US market insight no one else have. Keep up to date with…
Privacy Policy Welcome to our Privacy Policy — Your privacy is important to us. ISABELNET S.A. is located at: 51 Cite Joseph Brebsom, L-4046 Esch-sur-Alzette, GRAND DUCHY OF LUXEMBOURG (LU) (Company Registration Number: B66007) It is ISABELNET’s policy to respect your privacy regarding any information we may collect while operating our website. This Privacy Policy…
Terms and Conditions of Use Welcome to ISABELNET These terms and conditions outline the rules and regulations for the use of ISABELNET’s website. ISABELNET S.A. is located at: 51 Cite Joseph Brebsom, L-4046 Esch-sur-Alzette, GRAND DUCHY OF LUXEMBOURG (LU) (Company Registration Number: B66007) By accessing this website we assume you accept these terms and conditions…
How to Access your Membership In the Menu bar, click on “Log In” and select your membership (Basic, Premium or Pro membership), or visit your membership page directly at: Basic Membership Access Page Premium Membership Access Page Pro Membership Access Page Enter your email and the password of your membership. Then click on the “Log…