U.S. Presidential Elections and the Stock Market The first two years of presidential terms tend to produce below-average returns, while the next 2 years tend to produce above-average returns. Image: Fidelity Investments
Incumbent Presidential Election Years Since 22nd Amendment Incumbent presidential election years have traditionally been good for equities, with an average return of 11.4% since 22nd amendment. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
S&P 500 Performance 12-Months After ISM Manufacturing Index Below 50 for Four Months Since 1950, the S&P 500 has rallied 12-months later, 80% of the time, after the ISM Manufacturing Index was below 50 for four months, with an average return of 12%. Image: Arbor Research & Trading LLC
Equity Market Performance Around Bear Markets Interesting chart showing the average return before and after equity market peaks from 1945 to 2018. You may also like “First, Middle, Final Years of S&P 500 Bull Markets since 1975.” Image: J.P. Morgan Asset Management
S&P 500 and Recession Probability Great chart showing twelve Fed easing cycles since the 1950s, including the recession probability and the average return of the S&P 500 Index. Image: Fidelity Investments
Big Starts to a Year Can Produce Weak Results Going Forward While new all-time highs and consecutive winning streaks can produce above-average returns in the longer term, pullbacks are possible in the short term. Our previous two articles: “Sell in May and Go Away?” and “Sell in May and Go Away? Maybe Not this Year“…
This powerful indicator looks into the US stock market and suggests whether it is bullish, bearish or neutral Using multiple financial data, this great model helps investors navigate through different market conditions. It suggests whether the US stock market tendency is bullish, bearish or neutral. It is a contrarian indicator. A bullish signal suggests that…
S&P 500 Performance After Seven Week Wins Streaks Up >10% A seven-week winning streak and a double-digit gain tend to set the tone. Since 1950, US stocks have delivered an average 12-month return of 15.7% and never finished in the red. No wonder the bulls are smiling. Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 500 Performance After Six Week Wins Streaks Up >10% Six weeks up and more than 10% higher. Historically, that combination has been a tailwind for U.S. stocks, delivering average 12-month returns of 17.1% since 1950. It is exactly the kind of setup bulls like to see. Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 500 Bull Markets Over the past 50 years, the average U.S. bull market ran for eight years and returned 288%. At just 3.5 years old and up more than 100%, this one still looks far from exhausted, leaving bears stuck in a painful squeeze. Image: Carson Investment Research
Sentiment Indicator and Stock Positioning At 1.7, Goldman Sachs’ U.S. Equity Sentiment Indicator looks stretched, a level that has historically been followed by an average -0.4% return in the S&P 500 over the following month. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research