Search Results for: real GDP

Global Growth Economy This chart shows the global real GDP growth and the long-term growth momentum. It’s never paid to bet against America. Picture Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management

U.S. Economy Has Prospered While Europe Has Slowed This chart shows how the US economy is strong compared to European countries. And despite full employment, US real GDP should stay above potential GDP. Image: Financial Times

How’s the U.S. Economy Doing Now? The real GDP Nowcast relies on soft data such as consumer and business surveys and hard data such as retail sales and industrial production. It forecasts the growth of real GDP. At full employment, GDP returns to the level of potential GDP. If a recession were to occur today,…

Is Trump Right to Criticize Powell? We don’t think so, because: – Interest rates are still near zero in real terms and below real GDP – The rise in Fed rates has very few visible negative effects in the USA – And at full employment, GDP returns to the level of potential GDP

10-Year Government Bond Yield Sovereign bonds are selling off worldwide, not just in one market, as investors are concerned about higher energy prices, stickier inflation, tighter policy and a wave of government borrowing. Image: Alpine Macro

S&P 500 Annual Total Return, Conditioned on Reported EPS Direction Earnings up? The S&P 500 only rallied 79% of those years. Earnings down? It still climbed 66% of the time. That’s because markets trade on expectations, not last quarter’s print. Image: Real Investment Advice

Valuation – The Buffett Indicator The Buffett Indicator, which compares U.S. market capitalization to GDP, hit a fresh high. It’s not a crash signal, but it raises a flag. At these levels, history suggests weaker long-term returns and a thinner margin of safety Image: Real Investment Advice

European Defense Stock Returns vs. U.S. Defense Stock Returns The trend of European defense stocks outperforming U.S. peers is likely to persist in the medium term due to sustained increases in military spending and geopolitical realignments favoring local suppliers. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond

Does U.S. Productivity Increase Under President Trump? The answer is yes, because businesses have invested. Even if Net Domestic Investment to GDP is in a long-term downtrend, that’s good news for the U.S. economy. Keep in mind that it is a key factor in extending the business cycle. US Productivity has increased, because US companies have invested,…

U.S. Budget Deficits and the U.S. Dollar Pretty good correlation between U.S. budget deficits and the U.S. dollar over the past 30 years. The chart suggests that the U.S. dollar should weaken over time. You may also like “U.S. Twin Deficits (% of GDP) Lead Real Trade Weighted Dollar Index by Two Years” and “U.S. Dollar…

Is U.S. Household Debt a Problem? Not really, right now. Actually, the level of household debt alone does not tell an accurate picture of the current situation. However, U.S. household debt to GDP is much lower, U.S. household debt service payments as a percent of disposable personal income  and U.S. household financial obligations as a percent…