Search Results for: yield curve

U.S. 10-Year/2-Year Yield Spread vs. Fed Funds Target Rate Interesting chart showing the U.S. 10Y-2Y yield curve steepness versus. the Fed funds target rate (inverted). Image: Credit Suisse

The Fed vs. the 10-Year Treasury Yield The Fed fund curve suggests that the 10-year Treasury yield could fall below its all-time low of 1.32% in 2016. Image: Fidelity Investments

10Y-3M Treasury Yield Spread Adjusted for QE and QT Adjusted for quantitative easing (QE) and quantitative tightening (QT), the 10-year minus 3-month yield curve may have inverted in December 2018. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management

Probability of U.S. Recession As Priced Across Asset Classes The S&P 500 is pricing in about a 25% chance of a recession, which is lower than signals from copper prices or the yield curve, but higher than the recession probabilities implied by global equities or high-yield credit markets. Analysts often use the current percentage change…

Fed Balance Sheet The ongoing reduction of the Fed’s balance sheet is expected to reduce bank reserves. This reduction may lead to higher inflation, increased real yields, and a steeper yield curve. Image: TS Lombard

ISABELNET Cartoon of the Day Historically, inverted yield curves have accurately predicted U.S. recessions, making them a crucial economic indicator. However, this time may be different, regardless of what bears claim. Have a Great Day, Everyone! 😎

Average Movements in 2s10s Slope Around U.S. Recessions Historically, when the U.S. 2s10s yield curve has been inverted by more than -100bps, a U.S. recession is currently happening or will happen within 8 months. Is it different this time? Image: Deutsche Bank

Central Bank – BOJ Outright Purchases of JGBs Will the Bank of Japan (BOJ) continue to buy Japanese government bonds as part of its yield curve control policy? Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy

Recession – 10-Year U.S. Treasuries Minus Fed Funds Rate Historically, an inverted yield curve has been an excellent predictor of recessions in the United States. Image: BofA Global Research

Time Lags Between Indicators and Recessions Chart showing that credit standards, earnings and the yield curve are the earliest recession indicators. Image: Oxford Economics

Small Bank Lending and 2-Year/Fed Funds Spread This chart shows the correlation between small bank lending and falling rates, and the negative effect of an inverted yield curve on small bank lending. Image: TS Lombard