Composite of Leading Indicators and Recessions
Composite of Leading Indicators and Recessions Does the LEI suggest a turning point in the U.S. economy? Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Composite of Leading Indicators and Recessions Does the LEI suggest a turning point in the U.S. economy? Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Equity Fund Flows vs. ISM Manufacturing Will equity fund inflows continue to slow as the U.S. economy decelerates? Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
M2 – Money Supply vs. Monetary Velocity Is printing more money good for the U.S. economy? Despite strong M2 growth, money velocity has declined. Image: Real Investment Advice
Interest Rates – S&P 500 Index and Federal Reserve Bank Rate Hikes per Year Historically, if the U.S. economy isn’t in a recession, the S&P 500 tends to do well during Fed rate hikes. Image: LPL Research
Hit Rate for S&P 500 (% Positive Returns) in Months of Small Cap Leadership vs. All Months Generally small caps tend to outperform when the U.S. economy is growing. Could small caps regain leadership? Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy
G6 Real GDP Levels The U.S. economy is growing pretty solidly and is expected to outperform the rest of DM through the end of 2022. Image: BofA Global Research
% of Potential GDP and Federal Deficit + Balance Sheet Expansion Will the U.S. economy slow down much more in 2022 than people think? Image: Quill Intelligence, LLC
Inflation – TIPS and Equity Sector Fund Flows Strong fund inflows into TIPS, materials, energy and financials. Will the Federal Reserve let the U.S. economy run hot? Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) – ETF Assets Under Management Assets under management in TIPS ETFs surge to record high, as the Federal Reserve lets the U.S. economy run hot. Image: Topdown Charts
Greatest Annual Flows Biggest inflows into TIPS and financials this year, as the Fed lets the U.S. economy run hot. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy