To What Extend Do You Think the U.S. “Magnificent Seven” Tech Stocks Will Either Be Up or Down in 2025? 67% of respondents expect the “Magnificent Seven” stocks to grow in 2025, with an average anticipated gain of 6.8%. In contrast, 33% predict a decline, with 22% of that group expecting a drop of over…
S&P 500 Performance After a Negative Santa Claus Rally and Negative First Five Days Historically, the combination of a negative Santa Claus rally and a negative first five days of a new year for the S&P 500 index has been associated with weaker returns for the rest of the year on average. Image: Carson Investment…
Risk Appetite Indicator Level – Drawdowns and Up Moves Time to reduce risk? When the Risk Appetite Indicator (RAI) level is above 1, near-term returns tend to be lower on average, with larger drawdowns. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Volatility – Daily S&P 500 Closing Change > 1% or < -1% The S&P 500 Total Return has gained 18.40% in 2020, despite above average volatility. Image: Ken Fisher, Fisher Investments
U.S. Equity Risk Premium and VIX The U.S. equity risk premium remains above its long-term average, but the risk-adjusted return of equity has dropped below its long-term avearge this year. Image: Societe Generale Cross Asset Research/Global Asset Allocation
S&P 500 Cycle-Adjusted P/E The S&P500 cycle-adjusted P/E is now 29.9 and 75% above its long-term average, suggesting weak equity returns over the next 10 years. Image: J.P. Morgan
Distributions of Volatility by Countries This chart shows the average of 6-month rolling standard deviation of monthly returns over the last 10 years. Image: J.P. Morgan
Past Yield Curve Inversions Preceded Top in Stocks by About 11 Months In the 12 months following an inversion of the yield curve, the S&P 500 return averaged about 10%. Image: Bloomberg
First, Middle, Final Years of S&P 500 Bull Markets since 1975 The chart shows that the S&P 500 has generated a 26.9% return on average, in the final years of bull markets since 1975, excluding the current bull market. You may also like “Equity Market Performance Around Bear Markets.” Image: Legg Mason
Historically, June is One of the Weakest Months of the Year for US Stocks since 1950 The chart shows the S&P 500 Index average monthly returns. Since 1950, and over the past 10 & 20 years, the S&P 500 has been negative on average in June. Image: LPL Research
Vanguard Founder Jack Bogle’s Market Forecast Vanguard Founder Jack Bogle has done more for the average investor than any person in the financial industry. By the end of 2018, he tells us why he thinks returns will be lower in the coming years. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x5fX0CdESMk