S&P 500 Performance After >55% of Components Make a 20-Day High There’s good news for bulls: since 1970, the S&P 500 has gained an average of 16.3% in the 12 months after more than 55% of its components hit a 20-day high, with positive returns occurring 96.7% of the time. Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 500 5% Gains and What Happened Next Since 1950, the S&P 500 has surged 5% or more in a single day on 23 occasions. A year later, stocks climbed an average of 26.9%, with positive returns in over 91% of cases—good news for bulls! Image: Carson Investment Research
MSCI AC World – Bear Market Rallies Since the 1980s, there have been 19 global bear market rallies, lasting 44 days on average with MSCI AC World returns of 10–15%. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
The Worst Day of the Year for the S&P 500 When It Gains >20% for the Year Monday saw the S&P 500 drop 2.7%, its worst day this year. Even in years with strong returns over 20%, single-day losses average 3.5% since 1950. Sharp daily declines are often part of significant annual gains. Image: Carson…
S&P 500 Performance After a Negative Santa Claus Rally and Negative First Five Days Historically, the combination of a negative Santa Claus rally and a negative first five days of a new year for the S&P 500 index has been associated with weaker returns for the rest of the year on average. Image: Carson Investment…
Risk Appetite Indicator Level – Drawdowns and Up Moves Time to reduce risk? When the Risk Appetite Indicator (RAI) level is above 1, near-term returns tend to be lower on average, with larger drawdowns. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Volatility – Daily S&P 500 Closing Change > 1% or < -1% The S&P 500 Total Return has gained 18.40% in 2020, despite above average volatility. Image: Ken Fisher, Fisher Investments
U.S. Equity Risk Premium and VIX The U.S. equity risk premium remains above its long-term average, but the risk-adjusted return of equity has dropped below its long-term avearge this year. Image: Societe Generale Cross Asset Research/Global Asset Allocation
S&P 500 Cycle-Adjusted P/E The S&P500 cycle-adjusted P/E is now 29.9 and 75% above its long-term average, suggesting weak equity returns over the next 10 years. Image: J.P. Morgan
Distributions of Volatility by Countries This chart shows the average of 6-month rolling standard deviation of monthly returns over the last 10 years. Image: J.P. Morgan
Past Yield Curve Inversions Preceded Top in Stocks by About 11 Months In the 12 months following an inversion of the yield curve, the S&P 500 return averaged about 10%. Image: Bloomberg