U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index vs. U.S. 30-Year Mortgage Rate YoY Change The U.S. 30-year mortgage rate YoY change tends to lead the U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index by 19 months. Image: UnderOrion and Macrobond
ISM Manufacturing Index vs. Discretionary Investors Positioning The correlation between discretionary investor equity positioning and ISM manufacturing is quite strong at 67%.
ISM Manufacturing Index and Regional Manufacturing Surveys Regional manufacturing surveys do not bode well for the ISM Manufacturing Index. Image: True Insights
ISM Manufacturing Index vs. S&P 500 Positive Sales Surprises Should U.S. equity investors expect small positive sales surprises ahead? Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
Return – U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index vs. U.S. Treasuries Could U.S. Treasuries represent a buying opportunity? Image: True Insights
Stocks with Stable Growth vs. Volatile Growth Rolling 12-Month Excess Return and ISM Manufacturing Index (Inverted) Stable stocks tend to outperform in a slowing economy. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index vs. ISM New Orders Less ISM Inventories Inventory rebuild suggests a sharp fall in the U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
ISM Manufacturing Index vs. Banks / Utilities (Leading Indicator) Will the ISM Manufacturing Index move downward from current levels? Image: Morgan Stanley Research
ISM Manufacturing Index and ISM Prices Paid Index (Leading Indicator) The ISM Prices Paid Index tends to lead the ISM Manufacturing Index by 12 months, suggesting a fall of the ISM Manufacturing Index in 1H22. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
U.S. 10Y-2Y Treasury Yield Curve and U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index In a situation of extreme excess liquidity, is the U.S. 10Y-2Y yield curve a broken indicator? Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
Median Forward S&P 500 Return Based on ISM Manufacturing Index at Time of Investment When the ISM is above 60, like today, the median forward return on the S&P 500 tends to be negative over the next 3 months. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research