MSCI World Index and U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield When bond yields climb, equities often take a hit or simply lose momentum. The pattern is familiar: P/E multiples stall and money rotates out of long‑duration growth stocks, even though the rally isn’t dead. Image: Bloomberg
Performance – Value vs. Growth The U.S. market is experiencing outperformance in growth sectors driven by innovation and strong earnings, whereas value sectors dominate outside the U.S. due to slower earnings growth and differing economic dynamics. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Performance – Spread Between Quarterly Percentage Gains in S&P 500 Value and Growth Indexes Value stocks have significantly outperformed growth stocks in the first quarter of 2025. The upcoming earnings reports will play a pivotal role in determining whether this trend will persist or if growth stocks will reclaim their leadership. Image: Bloomberg
DXY U.S. Dollar Index vs. Nasdaq Composite / MSCI World Value Over the past two years, U.S. growth stocks—known for their sensitivity to currency fluctuations—have exhibited a strong correlation with the U.S. dollar. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
MSCI World Fwd PE and EPS Revisions Downward revisions in global EPS raise concerns, suggesting that the global economic landscape is precarious, prompting central banks to adopt more aggressive strategies to stimulate growth. Image: J.P. Morgan
Global Equities – MSCI AC World Mid- and Large-Cap Index Are emerging market equities poised for continued growth? Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
Global Money Supply and MSCI World Index Global equities are around 1 standard devation vs. global money supply. It could be bullish for stocks, as global money supply growth tends to push equities higher. Image: Nordea and Macrobond
Semiconductors as a Share of the S&P 500 The market’s weak spot is concentration. Semiconductors have climbed to 18.8% of the S&P 500, a record and more than twice their dot-com era peak. One miss can pull everything down. Image: Real Investment Advice
U.S. Tech – 3-Month Change in Price vs. 3-Month Change in FY2 EPS Until recently, U.S. tech earnings and stock returns have run hand in hand. With the correlation breaking down, dips are looking more like entry points, supported by solid growth prospects tied to AI adoption. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research