Survey – Where Do You Expect 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yields to Be One Year from Now? Deutsche Bank’s latest survey shows that 52% of participants expect the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to rise above 4.25% next year, with the bank’s strategists calling for 4.45% by the end of 2026. Image: Deutsche Bank
U.S. Treasury Index – Annual Return U.S. Treasuries are on track for their strongest annual performance since 2020, lifted by Fed rate cuts and a cooling labor market that is fueling bets on more monetary easing. Image: Bloomberg
Median U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield Performance in Fed Rate Cuts Cycles Fed rate cuts usually pull short-term yields lower, but long Treasury bonds don’t always fall in line. Inflation expectations, shifting bets on future policy, or a flood of new debt can just as easily push them higher. Image: Deutsche Bank
S&P 500 Earnings Yield Minus U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield With the S&P 500 equity risk premium slipping below zero, markets are flashing a warning: risk isn’t being rewarded anymore. Image: Bloomberg
Fed Funds Rate and 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield The S&P 500’s record-breaking rally shows no signs of cooling, with market participants now positioning for another Fed rate cut on October 29 to fuel the next leg higher. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Survey – 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yields While expectations tilt toward falling 10-year U.S. Treasury yields, plenty of voices argue for a rise, citing everything from sticky inflation to uncertain rate cuts and uneven economic growth. Image: Deutsche Bank
U.S. 2-Year Treasury Yield vs. Fed Funds The current 2-year U.S. Treasury yield, which is below the fed funds rate, signals that monetary policy is restrictive. It also implies the Fed is about 80 basis points behind the curve in cutting rates. Image: Real Investment Advice
Average and Median Monthly 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield Change Since 2000 U.S. Treasury bond yields typically increase in September and October due to a surge in bond supply after the summer lull, combined with market influences like policy shifts and investor repositioning. Image: Deutsche Bank
10-Year U.S. Treasury Yields with Various Moving Averages When the Fed prioritizes the labor market over inflation, it can reduce the immediate risk of recession by sustaining employment. However, this is likely to increase inflation expectations and push yields higher. Image: J.P. Morgan
S&P 500 Dividend Yields vs. 10-Year Treasury Yields S&P 500 dividend yields are near historic lows, close to levels seen during the 2000 tech bubble, due to high valuations and companies favoring stock buybacks over dividends, challenging income-focused investors relying on dividends. Image: Deutsche Bank
U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield and Economic Surprise Index Weakening U.S. economic data and evolving fiscal conditions have led Goldman Sachs to revise down Treasury yield forecasts, anticipating a more accommodative monetary policy with earlier and multiple Fed rate cuts in 2025. Image: Bloomberg