Average and Median Monthly 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield Change Since 2000 U.S. Treasury bond yields typically increase in September and October due to a surge in bond supply after the summer lull, combined with market influences like policy shifts and investor repositioning. Image: Deutsche Bank
10-Year U.S. Treasury Yields with Various Moving Averages When the Fed prioritizes the labor market over inflation, it can reduce the immediate risk of recession by sustaining employment. However, this is likely to increase inflation expectations and push yields higher. Image: J.P. Morgan
S&P 500 Dividend Yields vs. 10-Year Treasury Yields S&P 500 dividend yields are near historic lows, close to levels seen during the 2000 tech bubble, due to high valuations and companies favoring stock buybacks over dividends, challenging income-focused investors relying on dividends. Image: Deutsche Bank
U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield and Economic Surprise Index Weakening U.S. economic data and evolving fiscal conditions have led Goldman Sachs to revise down Treasury yield forecasts, anticipating a more accommodative monetary policy with earlier and multiple Fed rate cuts in 2025. Image: Bloomberg
10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield vs. Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index The dollar’s decline amid rising Treasury yields signals concerns over U.S. fiscal health, reduced foreign demand for debt, and geopolitical risks, reflecting a shift in investor confidence and the dollar’s role as a global safe haven. Image: Bloomberg
10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield Fair Value The fair value model for the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, based on market variables, suggests a fair value close to 3.9%. Image: Deutsche Bank
U.S. 10-Year Treasury Term Premium The increasing term premium signals that investors require greater compensation for the risks inherent in holding longer-term bonds, reflecting increased concerns about interest rate and inflation over longer durations. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Nominal 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield and Indexed Return of Cyclicals vs. Defensives Higher growth expectations raise bond yields because investors demand greater compensation for potential inflation and uncertainty about future interest rates. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Median Annual S&P 500 Total Return Based on Nominal 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield There is no consistently clear or stable relationship between bond yields and equity returns. Their correlation is dynamic and shaped by various economic factors, including inflation, interest rates, and credit risk. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Performance – S&P 500 vs. 30-Year US Treasury vs. Trade-Weighted U.S. Dollar The simultaneous decline of U.S. equities, bonds, and the dollar is rare—especially during periods of market stress— and signals a potential shift in global investor sentiment and the structural underpinnings of U.S. financial markets. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield and U.S. Federal Debt Held by the Public Even with U.S. federal debt at historic highs and projected to rise further, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remains low compared to the high-inflation periods of the past half-century. Image: Deutsche Bank