U.S. Treasury Index – Annual Return U.S. Treasuries are on track for their strongest annual performance since 2020, lifted by Fed rate cuts and a cooling labor market that is fueling bets on more monetary easing. Image: Bloomberg
Median U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield Performance in Fed Rate Cuts Cycles Fed rate cuts usually pull short-term yields lower, but long Treasury bonds don’t always fall in line. Inflation expectations, shifting bets on future policy, or a flood of new debt can just as easily push them higher. Image: Deutsche Bank
U.S. Manufacturing PMI and Global Leading Indicator Leading indicators are turning higher, signaling a growing chance of a global cyclical upswing into the first half of 2026. Image: Bloomberg
Performance – Bloomberg U.S. 500 Ex Mag 7 Index vs. FTSE All-World Ex U.S. Index The AI boom remains a U.S. mega-cap story for now, leaving the global balance mostly untouched. Image: Bloomberg
Share Repurchases vs. U.S. Stock Market Returns Corporate buybacks and market returns move in tandem. With roughly $5 billion a day in share repurchases, U.S. companies are keeping a solid bid under equities and softening every selloff. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 – MSCI U.S. vs. G10 Excess Liquidity Leading Indicator G10 excess liquidity points to only modest S&P 500 gains in the first half of 2026, rather than a surge. Image: Bloomberg
U.S. Economic Forecasts Deutsche Bank sees U.S. growth staying strong through 2028, with core inflation easing toward the Fed’s 2% target and job markets holding firm. Image: Deutsche Bank Click the Image to Enlarge
Atlanta Fed GDPNow U.S. Real GDP Estimate Estimates from the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow point to 3.9% annualized GDP growth in Q3 2025, a reminder that the U.S. economy isn’t cooling just yet. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
GS U.S. Financial Conditions Index Despite lower policy rates and the Fed’s decision to end quantitative tightening, U.S. financial conditions have tightened recently. For investors, the policy backdrop isn’t as friendly as the rate cuts imply. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Probability of U.S. Recession Calculated from the Yield Curve The probability of U.S. recession in 12 months, calculated from the yield curve, stands at 21.4%. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
U.S. Corporate Profits as Percent of GDP Corporate America’s profit share remains elevated in 2025, a sign that the pandemic-era surge in profitability has proven surprisingly durable. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research