Search Results for: U.S.

S&P 500 Earnings Revisions vs. U.S. PMIs The U.S. macro picture remains solid for now, reinforcing the optimism spreading across Wall Street. Image: Topdown Charts

U.S. 10s30s and 20Y to 30Y Buybacks Buybacks are starting to look like fiscal QE, with the Treasury flooding the system with short‑term debt to fund the deficit. The problem is that rising yields are draining that liquidity almost as fast as it arrives. Image: Bloomberg

S&P 500 – Real Growth of $1 in U.S. Stocks Since 1871, U.S. stocks have spent about three out of every four months below a previous peak. The trend line goes up, but the typical investor experience is more red ink than new highs. Image: Real Investment Advice

U.S. Net Interest Expense as a % of Total Tax Revenue Washington is increasingly using tax revenue to cover its interest bill. Roughly 20% of federal receipts now goes toward debt service, the highest share of the modern era. Sooner or later, something will have to give. Image: Bloomberg

U.S. New Private Housing Units Authorized by Building Permits and Recessions In July, U.S. building permits rose to 1.443 million, above expectations. Historically, building permits tend to peak and then decline prior to economic recessions. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

U.S. Real Retail Sales and Recession U.S. real retail sales stand at 1.65% YoY. About 70% of U.S. GDP is personal consumption. In the past, U.S. real retail sales trended sideways before the recession began.

U.S. Corporate Profits and S&P 500 Relative Total Return to U.S. Treasuries Earnings are still riding on nominal growth, and with valuations creeping higher, strategists see enough fuel to stay tactically bullish on U.S. equities into year-end. Image: BCA Research

U.S. Equity Valuation Metrics (Z-Score Since 1900) U.S. stocks have priced in a lot of good news, with most valuation metrics more than two standard deviations above their historical averages. But momentum could keep the rally going longer than many expect. Image: The Daily Shot

U.S. Dollar Net Positioning Speculators are heavily long the dollar, which is a classic contrarian red flag. History shows crowded USD longs often precede pullbacks. Image: J.P. Morgan

U.S.-Listed ETFs: Annual Flows Investors are piling into US-listed ETFs at a record pace. Inflows have reached nearly $1.3 trillion by the end of July, putting the year on track to break the $2 trillion mark. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Sentiment – Risk Appetite and Expected U.S. Equity Market Performance Risk appetite among U.S. equity fund managers has surged to its highest level this year, buoyed by easing Middle East tensions and continued resilience in corporate earnings and the broader economy. Image: S&P Global Market Intelligence