S&P 500 – Length and Severity of Bear and Subsequent Bull Markets Since 1970, the typical bear market lasts roughly 14 months, experiencing an average decline of around 38%, and is followed by bull markets that last about 70 months and generate average returns of 221%. Image: J.P. Morgan Asset Management
Net Bullish Sentiment vs. S&P 500 Index Investor sentiment has rebounded sharply since April’s market turmoil, buoyed by trade-related optimism, but it has not reached the excessive bullishness that usually signals a market peak. Image: Real Investment Advice
New Bull Markets Start (20% Off Bear Lows or Near Bear Lows) and What Happened Next for the S&P 500 Bulls have reason to be optimistic, as the S&P 500’s rally of over 20% from its April 8th low follows a historical pattern that has nearly always resulted in higher prices a year later, with…
Length of Bull Markets and When They Started The current bull market, which began in October 2022, remains relatively young by historical standards and could persist much longer than bearish observers expect. Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 500 Performance After at Least 15 Weeks of AAII Bears over Bulls Ends A streak of 15 consecutive weeks with more bears than bulls in the AAII survey is rare—only four other periods have lasted this long. In each case, the S&P 500 was higher 12 months later, with an average gain of 27.5%.…
Bullish Percent Index vs. S&P 500 Index The S&P 500’s rally has reversed extreme bearish sentiment, pushing the number of stocks on bullish buy signals toward 70% and confirming a significant, broad-based improvement in market breadth. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Bull Markets The current bull market, which began in October 2022, is showing potential for continued growth at 28 months old. Historically, bull markets have lasted an average of 5.5 years since 1949, with an average gain of 191.6%. Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 500 Average Returns in Bull Markets While the third year of a bull market often shows signs of relative weakness, patient investors may find substantial opportunities in the following years, as historical trends suggest the potential for sustained growth. Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 500 Return – Year 3 of Bull Market Like a kid who loses interest in his favorite toy after two years, the S&P 500 tends to slow down in the third year of a bull market. Its gains often become less impressive compared to the first two years. Image: MarketDesk
Percentage Change in S&P 500 in Previous Bull Markets The current bull market appears to be in its early stages, with historical data supporting the potential for significant gains in the coming months and years. Image: Bloomberg
Secular Bull Market – S&P 500 Weekly Chart with the 40-Week MA and 200-Week MA The S&P 500 has reached the 5600s target based on the bullish cup and handle pattern that formed in 2022-2023. The early-2024 breakout to new all-time highs projects further upside potential to the 6150 level. Image: BofA Global Research