Citi Economic Surprises The U.S. economy has held up better than its peers since the Middle East conflict escalated, as growth prospects elsewhere have dimmed, pushing investors toward the U.S. as the steadier bet. Image: TS Lombard
1-Month Rolling Correlation of 10-Year UST Yield Change and S&P 500 Returns Since the start of the Middle East conflict, U.S. Treasuries have struggled to play their traditional diversification role. The one-month rolling correlation between 10-year yields and equitie returns has sunk to a multi-decade low. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Retail Gasoline Price Change Between February 23 and April 27, 2026 The Middle East conflict is sending fuel costs soaring across Asia, with gasoline prices in Southeast Asia up 37% since the war began. In the U.S., prices have surged 42%, a sharp rise that is hard to ignore. Image: J.P. Morgan Commodities Research
Global Economy – GDP Growth Projections The IMF projects global growth at 3.1% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027. Robust tech investment, steady policy support, and a surprisingly flexible private sector are keeping momentum alive despite the Middle East conflict. Image: International Monetary Fund
Impact of U.S. Quarter-Over-Quarter Annualized GDP Growth The boost from the 2025 fiscal bill may be short-lived, as the conflict in the Middle East drives oil prices higher and curbs U.S. growth prospects. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Index Returns In April Even with the Middle East conflict clouding the seasonal backdrop, April has historically been a strong month for U.S. equities, averaging positive returns since 1950. Image: Carson Investment Research
Difference between Front-End Brent Crude Oil Futures and 6-Month Brent Futures Markets are betting the Middle East conflict will be short‑lived. Oil futures signal tight near‑term supply but confidence that disruptions will fade quickly. But markets tend to price in calm faster than reality delivers. Image: Deutsche Bank
S&P 500 Monthly Performance the Past 20 Years This year’s conflict in the Middle East has clouded the outlook, but history still favors the bulls: April has rewarded U.S. stocks 80% of the time over the past two decades, as markets tend to climb the wall of worry this time of year. Image: Carson Investment…
Brent Crude Oil Futures Markets are betting the Middle East conflict won’t drag on, a view reflected in oil futures prices. The curve remains in backwardation, indicating tight near‑term supply but confidence that any disruption will prove short‑lived. Image: Alpine Macro
When Do You Expect a Ceasefire to Be Reached Between the U.S. and Iran? Investors are largely treating the Middle East conflict as a temporary shock, with most expecting a U.S.-Iran ceasefire before the end of April. Image: Deutsche Bank
Cash Allocation by Non-Bank Investors Globally Non‑bank global investors are rotating out of stocks and bonds and into cash as the Middle East conflict‑related energy shock raises inflation fears and the risk of higher interest rates. Image: J.P. Morgan