S&P 500 Median Forward EPS Drawdowns

S&P 500 Median Forward EPS Drawdowns The risk to U.S. equities remains earnings, as an earnings recession is not priced in. Image: Morgan Stanley Research

MSCI EMU 12-Month Forward EPS

MSCI EMU 12-Month Forward EPS Earnings estimates are revised significantly downward during recessions. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond

S&P 500 Forward EPS and World Trade Growth

S&P 500 Forward EPS and World Trade Growth The chart shows a pretty good correlation between the S&P 500 forward 12-month EPS and the CPB World Trade Index. Image: Oxford Economics, Macrobond

Valuation – Consensus Forward P/E vs. Expected EPS Growth

Valuation – Consensus Forward P/E vs. Expected EPS Growth The P/E premium reflects higher expected EPS growth, supported by a strong current correlation between EPS growth forecasts and P/E multiples. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research