Indexed Return of Cyclicals vs. Defensives and Consensus Forward 4-Quarter U.S. GDP Growth Robust earnings, a more optimistic geopolitical climate, and positive technical indicators have led to a significant upward revision in equity market growth expectations. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 E-Mini Futures (ES1) Liquidity Thinning liquidity in financial markets exacerbates downside risks by increasing the likelihood of abrupt and severe price movements, particularly during economic or geopolitical shocks. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
European Defense Stock Returns vs. U.S. Defense Stock Returns The trend of European defense stocks outperforming U.S. peers is likely to persist in the medium term due to sustained increases in military spending and geopolitical realignments favoring local suppliers. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
Gold Consecutives Weekly Gains A perfect storm of factors—including inflation worries, robust central bank purchases, geopolitical uncertainties, and favorable monetary policies—has propelled gold prices upward for eight consecutive weeks. Image: The Daily Shot
Gold Prices in 2024 U.S. Dollars The real (inflation-adjusted) price of gold has reached a new all-time high, driven by several factors including U.S. tariff uncertainties, geopolitical tensions, and increased demand from global central banks. Image: Deutsche Bank
Central Bank Gold Purchases The freezing of Russia’s central bank assets has had a profound impact on global financial strategies, driving central banks to significantly increase their gold holdings as a safeguard against economic and geopolitical risks. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Gold Price Forecast The combination of robust central bank buying, anticipated Fed rate cuts, and escalating geopolitical tensions supports a bullish sentiment among strategists for gold prices reaching $3,000 per ounce by late 2025. Image: Bloomberg
Stocks – MSCI China Index 12-Month Targets Persistent deflation and geopolitical tensions have led Goldman Sachs to take a more cautious stance on Chinese equities and their earnings potential. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
FMS Investors – Biggest “Tail Risk” Concerns about geopolitical conflict have risen among FMS investors, with 33% now viewing it as the biggest “tail risk” for the global economy, primarily due to its potential negative impact on financial markets and investments. Image: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey
Brent Crude Oil Prices Recent geopolitical tensions have led to significant fluctuations in Brent crude oil prices, marking the largest weekly increase since April, exacerbating inflation concerns as the rising energy costs ripple through the economy. Image: Deutsche Bank
China Exports China’s exports increased by 2.6% since October 2023, mainly due to demand from regions outside the U.S. However, challenges persist, including weak domestic demand and geopolitical tensions that may impact future trade. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy