Share of S&P 500 Company Quarter-Ahead EPS Guidance Above Consensus Estimates Robust earnings and upbeat company guidance are keeping corporate America in a bullish mood about near‑term profits, lending fresh support to elevated equity valuations. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Consensus EPS Growth Estimates Wall Street’s profit machine is shifting into high gear—S&P 500 earnings are on track to climb 9% in 2025 and surge 14% in 2026, shrugging off economic jitters and trade frictions. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 YoY EPS Growth The median S&P 500 company EPS growth is expected to climb about 7% in Q4 2025, a sign of firmer earnings momentum and a more upbeat near‑term outlook. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Year/Year EPS Growth – Magnificent 7 vs. S&P 493 EPS growth for the Magnificent 7 is expected to cool to 14% in Q3, down from 28%. Mega-cap tech names should continue posting robust earnings growth, but the outsized premium that’s defined the trade might lose some of its shine in 2026. Image: Goldman Sachs Global…
Change in Consensus EPS Big Tech still runs the show—2026 earnings forecasts are racing higher for the giants, while the rest of the S&P 493 trail behind in their shadow. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Quarterly YoY EPS Growth Relative to Consensus Expectations Consensus sees S&P 500 earnings growth to cool to 6% in 3Q 2025 from 11% in 2Q, but Goldman Sachs thinks the bar may be set too low, pointing to stronger sales momentum and likely upside surprises from the Magnificent Seven. Image: Goldman Sachs Global…
Magnificent Seven and S&P 500 – 12-Month Trailing EPS The strong earnings power and consistent profit growth of the largest U.S. companies have been key factors in maintaining their dominant positions in the U.S. equity market over the past decade. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Typical Path of S&P 500 Bottom-Up Consensus EPS Estimate While positive earnings revisions have been strong recently, this momentum is likely to slow, though it probably won’t fall below the usual historical trend of downward revisions. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 EPS Growth Analysts project 7% year-over-year earnings growth for the S&P 500 in both Q3 and Q4 of 2025. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
EPS – GS Top-Down vs. Consensus Bottom-Up Estimates A 14% consensus EPS growth forecast for the S&P 500 next year may be plausible, but some analysts regard it as optimistic, awaiting further confirmation from corporate earnings and macroeconomic developments. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Consensus EPS Growth AI remains the dominant force behind S&P 500 earnings growth, with EPS projected to increase over the next three years, driven primarily by the Magnificent 7 and the broader technology sector. Image: Fundstrat Global Advisors, LLC