U.S. Inflation – Cleveland Median CPI vs. M2 Savings Deposits When fiscal policy drives money creation, inflation risk jumps. Spending and liquidity rise together, and before long, too much money chases too few goods. Recent U.S. money trends point toward price pressures ahead. Image: Bloomberg
Share of Tariff Cost Burden While the importer of record pays the tariff legally, the economic cost of tariffs is distributed across U.S. consumers, U.S. businesses that rely on imports, and foreign exporters. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Flexible and Sticky Inflation Flexible inflation (core goods) has fallen significantly and sticky inflation (core services) is still declining, which is good news as it suggests a moderation in the inflation rate. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
China and Mexico as % of U.S. Imports For the first time since 2003, the United States currently imports more goods from Mexico than from China. Will this trend continue? Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Inflation – ISM Services Business Prices vs. Copper The rise of copper prices is a cause for concern as it can lead to higher prices for a variety of goods and services. Image: Steno Research
U.S. Consumer Credit U.S. consumer borrowing is growing fast as goods prices continue to increase. Image: The Daily Shot
Germany Foreign Trade Balance Germany recorded its first trade deficit in goods since 1991. Could the euro fall further? Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
U.S. Consumer Credit U.S. consumer credit is surging as goods prices continue to rise. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
U.S. Consumers – Z-Scored University of Michigan Buying Conditions Consumer buying conditions for durable goods, vehicles and homes are at their worst since 1980. Image: Arbor Research & Trading LLC
U.S. Consumer Spending – Comparison of Spending Between March 2021 and February 2020 Travel spending remains low, while goods spending across sectors are well above pre-pandemic levels. Image: BofA Global Research
One-Year Correlation – Oil vs. U.S. Consumer Price Index (Inflation) When oil jumps in price, it tends to increase the cost of goods. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management