Annual U.S. Payroll Employment Growth in the Month Before Each Post-War Recession The recent slowdown in U.S. job creation is concerning, as it nears levels typically seen before economic downturns. Image: Paulsen Perspectives
Fed Funds Rate vs. U.S. Job Openings (JOLTS) Declining wage growth and employment would allow the Fed to make substantial cuts in interest rates. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims The U.S.’s sustained period of low initial jobless claims indicates a stable labor market. This is a positive development showing resilience in the economy and providing hope for continued growth. Image: The Daily Shot
U.S. Labor Market – Net Job Gains Job growth in the United States is expected to slow significantly in 2023 compared to 2022. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Consumer Spending and Nonfarm Payroll Growth U.S. consumers may spend less going forward. Slower job growth usually leads to a slowdown in consumer spending. Image: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research
U.S. Labor Market – Nonfarm Payrolls Growth in the Month That the Fed Starts Easing Policy The recent rise in payroll numbers is surprising given the Fed’s easing of interest rates. Usually, strong job growth coincides with tighter monetary policy, but the current situation reveals a notable divergence. Image: Deutsche Bank
U.S. Unemployment Rate Technical analysis suggests an upside risk to the U.S. unemployment rate in the second half of 2024, indicating potential challenges in sustaining job growth and stability in the labor market. Image: BofA Global Research
U.S. Unemployment Rate Continues Recovery U.S. unemployment rate drops to 7.9%, but job growth slowed in September. Image: BofA
U.S. Economic Forecasts Deutsche Bank sees U.S. growth staying strong through 2028, with core inflation easing toward the Fed’s 2% target and job markets holding firm. Image: Deutsche Bank Click the Image to Enlarge
U.S. Debt Held by Public as Share of GDP Rising U.S. federal debt could lead to higher interest payments, reduced investment and growth, fewer jobs, lower wages, and less flexibility for the government to respond to future challenges. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Median Non-Farm Payrolls in the 12 Months Before and After the Start of a U.S. Recession Consistently adding more than 100,000 payroll jobs each month is considered a vital cushion against recession worries. Continued growth at this pace could bolster confidence in the U.S. economy’s direction over the next few months. Image: Deutsche Bank