Probability of Negative Returns, Based on S&P 500 Total Returns from 1929-Present Extending the investment time horizon allows investors to minimize U.S. equity losses, navigate short-term market fluctuations, and leverage the long-term growth potential of equities. Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy
Average Annualized 1-Month Real Total S&P 500 Return and U.S. Unemployment Rate While a low U.S. unemployment rate is generally a positive indicator for the economy, very low unemployment rates can be seen as a negative for U.S. stocks. Image: BCA Research
S&P 500 Average Negative Sentiment Score YoY vs. Quarterly EPS YoY (Leading Indicator) The significant increase in corporate sentiment indicates a potential recovery in earnings, which is good news. Image: BofA Global Research
Gold vs. 10-Year U.S. Real Rate Gold tends to be negatively correlated with U.S. real interest rates. Is gold at risk of price decline? Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
U.S. Recession – 3-Month T-Bills Minus 12-Month CPI Inflation and 10-Year Treasury Rate Minus 12-Month CPI Inflation Historically, there has never been a recession in the United States with negative real interest rates. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
Global Negative Yielding Debt The transition from $18 trillion to zero in negative-yielding debt over the past few years reflects a broader shift away from the era of ultra-low interest rates and easy monetary policy. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Rates – U.S. 10-Year Real Interest Rate How long will real U.S. 10-year interest rates remain negative? Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Interest Rates – Global Rate Cuts vs. Global Rate Hikes Could global rate hikes have a significant negative impact on markets? Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
S&P 500 24-Month Forward Dividend Yield vs. U.S. 10-Year Rates Negative real rates are still supporting U.S. equities. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
The Long-Term Correlation Between U.S. Stocks and U.S. Interest Rates Rising interest rates tend to have a negative effect on earnings and the stock market. Image: Real Investment Advice
Real U.S. 30-Year Interest Rates How long will real U.S. 30-year interest rates remain negative? Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy