S&P 500 Around Close Presidential U.S. Elections Election Day frequently serves as a catalyst for the S&P 500, with the index typically surging as political uncertainties give way to clarity. Image: Deutsche Bank
S&P 500 and Odds of Winning U.S. Presidential Election The rising odds for Trump in prediction markets have been closely tied to an upswing in S&P 500 prices, reflecting investor sentiment that aligns with potential changes in economic policy should he win the election. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
S&P 500 Monthly Returns and Percentage of Time Up – Presidential Cycle Year 4 Seasonality provides valuable insights into stock market trends. Historically, after experiencing weaknesses in September and October during election years, the S&P 500 tends to rebound with strong returns in November and December. Image: BofA Global Research
How U.S. Stocks Historically Do When the Incumbent President Doesn’t Run for Re-Election The tendency for U.S. stocks to perform well in years when the incumbent president chooses not to run for re-election can be attributed to decreased uncertainty surrounding future governance. Image: Carson Investment Research
How the S&P 500 Does in an Election Year If the President Is Up for Re-Election or Not Historically, U.S. stocks tend to perform well in election years when the incumbent president is running for re-election, a pattern that seems to be continuing this year. Image: Carson Investment Research
Cumulative U.S. Equity Fund Flows from 1 Year Before to 1 Year After U.S. Presidential Elections Since 2004 Positive flows into U.S. equity funds could help support further gains in the S&P 500 after the upcoming U.S. presidential election. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Presidential Approval Rating vs. Unemployment Rate Even though the labor market is solid and the economy is growing, President Biden’s approval rating remains low, largely due to public unease over high inflation. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Implied Probabilities for the U.S. Presidential Election The prediction markets are suggesting a high probability of a Republican sweep in the upcoming 2024 U.S. elections, with potentially far-reaching implications for the political landscape. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Average Year for the S&P 500 the Fourth Year of a New President Historically, the fourth year of a new President’s term tends to see the S&P 500 perform best from mid-May to late September, with a notable rally often occurring during this period. Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 500 3-Month Seasonal Returns and Presidential Cycle Year 4 June to August historically shines during election years, as it represents the strongest 3-month period in the fourth year of the presidential cycle, up 75% of the time with an average return of 7.27% since 1928. Image: BofA Global Research
S&P 500 Performance (May – October) Broken Down by Presidential Cycle Sell in May and go away? Since 1950, the S&P 500 has shown an average return of 2.3% during the period from May through October in election years, making it an attractive period for investors. Image: Carson Investment Research