President Trump Tweets Contribute to Market Volatility President Trump’s tweets during his first term had a significant impact on financial markets, often contributing to increased volatility. During Trump’s second term, the dynamics appear similar. Image: Bloomberg
Stock Returns over the Past 33 Presidential Terms Starting on Inauguration Day U.S. stocks, after experiencing a historic drop at the start of the year, have made a strong recovery during Trump’s second term and are now in positive territory for 2025, fueling renewed optimism among bulls. Image: Carson Investment Research
U.S. Presidential Approval Rating vs. Consumer Confidence Trump’s approval exceeds Biden’s late-term lows, but deteriorating consumer confidence’s predictive power signals substantial downside risk as economic anxieties translate into political consequences. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
S&P 500 Around Close Presidential Elections The cyclical nature of equity markets around U.S. elections often leads to rallies after the election as policy uncertainties fade. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
U.S. Stocks Returns during Year One of a President’s Second Term The performance of U.S. stocks during the first year of a second presidential term has shown mixed results historically, but recent trends suggest a more favorable outlook. Image: Carson Investment Research
U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield Around Close Presidential Elections While U.S. elections are significant in shaping economic policy and affecting investor sentiment, they do not consistently drive changes in the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
S&P 500 Performance by President While the S&P 500 has generally trended upward under both Democratic and Republican administrations, average gains have historically been higher during Democratic presidencies. Image: J.P. Morgan Equity Macro Research
Consecutive Presidential Elections Where the Incumbent Party in the White House Is Defeated For the first time since the late 1800s, the incumbent party has lost three consecutive presidential elections. Politicians are unable to deliver against expectations in a world of lower growth and fairly regular shocks. Image: Deutsche Bank
30-Year U.S. Treasury Yields Around Presidential Election Dates Historically, 30-year U.S. Treasury yields have tended to rise after Republican victories and fall after Democratic victories, reflecting market perceptions of each party’s economic policies. Image: Deutsche Bank
U.S. Presidential Election Recent prediction market data indicates that the gap between Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris in the 2024 U.S. presidential race is narrowing. Image: Bloomberg
S&P 500 Around Predictable U.S. Presidential Elections While U.S. elections can create anxiety and volatility due to policy uncertainties, predictable elections often coincide with continued market trends and reduced market volatility. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation