Global Manufacturing PMIs – USA vs. Rest of the World

Global Manufacturing PMIs – USA vs. Rest of the World Global ex-US manufacturing PMI is below 50 (contraction). We will see if the United States can go it alone in the coming months. You may also like “ISM Manufacturing Index vs. S&P 500 Index since 2011“ Image: Topdown Charts

ISM Manufacturing Index vs. Average S&P 500 Index Returns

ISM Manufacturing Index vs. Average S&P 500 Index Returns An interesting chart showing the ISM Manufacturing Index and the S&P 500 Index forward 12-month return.Low returns when the ISM Manufacturing Index is above 60 and high returns when the ISM Manufacturing Index is below 40. Image: Jeroen Blokland

Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities

Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities The probability of recession stands at 0.18%. When this recession indicator exceeds 5% (red line), history suggests that the probability of recession increases significantly. The chart shows the smoothed U.S. recession probabilities indicator on a log scale. Smoothed U.S. recession probabilities are obtained from a dynamic-factor markov-switching model applied to four…

ISM PMI and S&P 500

ISM PMI and S&P 500 What does a cooling in U.S. manufacturing growth mean for the S&P 500 in the coming months? Image: BofA Global Research

Are Fears About an Imminent Recession Overblown?

Are Fears About an Imminent Recession Overblown? Historically, a recession is coming when the Leading Index for the United States is below 1. Today, it stands at 1.37. “The leading index for each state predicts the six-month growth rate of the state’s coincident index. In addition to the coincident index, the models include other variables…

U.S. Freight Shipping Activity

U.S. Freight Shipping Activity The New York Fed’s manufacturing report suggests a rebound in freight shipping activity this year. Image: Quill Intelligence, LLC

Cass Freight Shipments Index (6ma) vs. U.S. GDP

Cass Freight Shipments Index (6ma) vs. U.S. GDP The chart shows the Cass Freight Shipments Index (6-month average). It suggests a weakness in U.S. GDP in 3Q19. The Cass Freight Shipments Index is a relative good predictive indicator of the U.S. economy. You may also like “ISM Manufacturing Index vs. Cass Freight Index.” Image: Macro…

Growth and Inflation

Growth and Inflation This chart shows the ISM Index vs. prices paid deviation from the mean since 2009. Currently, the U.S. manufacturing cycle has headed back into recession & deflation. Image: Fidelity Investments