Demographics Explain Sovereign 30-Year Yields Across Emerging Markets

Demographics Explain Sovereign 30-Year Yields Accross Emerging Markets Another great chart showing that emerging market demographics explain 30-year sovereign bond yields. An R² of 0.80 is quite high and significant. You may also like “U.S. Population Growth vs. U.S. 10-Year Treasury Bond Yield.” Image: Arbor Research & Trading LLC

Investors Preference for U.S. Bond Funds

Investors Preference for U.S. Bond Funds Investors rush back into U.S. Treasury ETFs as trade and growth fears rise. Image: Arbor Research & Trading LLC

Estimated Number of Hedge Funds Launched or Closed since 2008

Estimated Number of Hedge Funds Launched or Closed since 2008 Can hedge funds deliver higher returns than passive investing? Not really. But many investors still think they can achieve higher returns with active trading than with passive investing. The chart below shows that it is really hard to outperform the market. As Warren Buffett said,…

Decomposing the U.S. 10-Year minus 3-Month Treasury Yield Spread since 2013

Decomposing the U.S. 10-Year minus 3-Month Treasury Yield Spread since 2013 This great chart shows that the “Global Economic Data” variable has a significant impact on the U.S. 10-year minus 3-month Treasury yield spread since 2018. An R² of 0.902 means that more than 90 percent of the variance in the U.S. 10-year minus 3-month Treasury yield spread…

Markets Have Accurately Priced in Cuts before Easing Cycles Begin

Markets Have Accurately Priced in Cuts before Easing Cycles Begin Orange lines mark days when markets priced in a rate cut. In recent history, it occurs between 33 and 281 business days before fed cut. The average is 120 business days. So, the Fed’s rate cut could take place in September 2019. You may also…

The Trade-Weighted Broad US Dollar Index Hits the Highest Level since 2002

The Trade-Weighted Broad US Dollar Index Hits the Highest Level since 2002 A strong dollar leads to wider trade deficits, and this is a headwind for US exporters. A strong dollar can also hurt emerging markets. The trade-weighted broad US Dollar index is a weighted average of the foreign exchange value of the US dollar against…

Are Value Stocks Cheap or Expensive?

Are Value Stocks Cheap or Expensive? Value stocks usually trade at a 24% discount to the stock market.But as of 02/29/2019, they are trading at 31% discounts in the U.S., 33% discounts in Europe and 34% discounts in emerging countries. Image: GMO

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