Is the US Expansion Fizzling Out?

Is the US Expansion Fizzling Out? This chart shows that business investment and consumer expenditure decline in the United States. Image: Deutsche Bank Global Research

One of the Best Indicators to Monitor for Signs a U.S. Recession Is Over

One of the Best Indicators to Monitor for Signs a U.S. Recession Is Over The probability of being unemployed in a given month in the United States, by dividing the average initial claims for unemployment insurance by the total number of people working, is one of the best indicators to monitor for signs a U.S.…

What Indicators to Watch for Signs a U.S. Recession Is Coming?

What Indicators to Watch for Signs a U.S. Recession Is Coming? 1) In recent history, a recession occurs about 12 to 18 months after the spread between the 30-year and the 3-month treasury yields turns negative (red arrow). When an inverted yield curve occurs, short-term interest rates exceed long-term rates. It suggests that the long-term…

The Top Wealthiest Countries in 2018

The Top Wealthiest Countries in 2018 The United States is the world’s largest wealth market with $60.7 trillion in 2018. Inequality: you may also like “Lower Incomes Paid the Highest Price.” Image: Visual Capitalist

What Does Government Debt Look Like Across the Globe?

What Does Government Debt Look Like Across the Globe? Government debt has risen to over $63 trillion in absolute terms. Japan is the most indebted countries in the world, with debt-to-GDP ratio of 237.6% in 2017. The United States debt-to-GDP ratio is 105.2% in 2017. Image: howmuch.net

Total Debt by Sector for Developed & Emerging Economies

Total Debt by Sector for Developed & Emerging Economies Argentina is the least indebted market in terms of GDP, while Japan is the most indebted market in terms of GDP. The United States’ total debt is 252% of GDP. Image: Pictet Asset Management

US Long-Term Mortgage Rates Decline: 30-Year Average 4.10% & 15-Year Average 3.57%

US Long-Term Mortgage Rates Decline: 30-Year Average 4.10% & 15-Year Average 3.57% Why US long-term mortgage rates decline? Mortgage costs are influenced by the 10-year Treasury yield which was lower this week, because the trade war between the United States and China pushes investors moving money from stocks to bonds. Bond yields fall as prices rise.…

One of the Best Indicators to Monitor for Signs a U.S. Recession Is Coming

One of the Best Indicators to Monitor for Signs a U.S. Recession Is Coming The probability of being unemployed in a given month in the United States, by dividing the average initial claims for unemployment insurance by the total number of people working, is one of the best indicators to monitor for signs a U.S.…

Why Are U.S. Banks Healthier Than Ever?

Why Are U.S. Banks Healthier Than Ever? U.S. banks are much stronger than ever. They have more capital and should withstand the next recession. See Fed’s annual stress test (Dodd-Frank Act Stress Tests): “The capital levels of the firms after the hypothetical severe global recession are higher than the actual capital levels of large banks…