Valuation – S&P 500 12-Month Forward P/E Ratio and 2-Year U.S. Treasury Yield
Valuation – S&P 500 12-Month Forward P/E Ratio and 2-Year U.S. Treasury Yield Historically, rising rates tend to compress S&P 500 valuation multiples. Image: Alpine Macro
Valuation – S&P 500 12-Month Forward P/E Ratio and 2-Year U.S. Treasury Yield Historically, rising rates tend to compress S&P 500 valuation multiples. Image: Alpine Macro
Yield Curve – 2-Year/10-Year U.S. Treasury Slope Will the U.S. Treasury yield curve continue to flatten? Image: BCA Research
Yield Curve – U.S. 10Y-2Y Treasury Yield Spread and U.S. 2-Year Treasury Yield Does the flattening of the yield curve signal skepticism about the prospects for economic growth? Image: Morgan Stanley Research
2-Year Government Bond Yield Moves in Selected Countries Bond traders expect monetary policy to tighten. Image: Deutsche Bank
2-Year Fed Funds Expectations vs. U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yields There is a positive correlation between the change in Fed funds expectations and the change in U.S. 10-year Treasury yields. Image: BofA Global Research
U.S. Yield Curve – Spread Between the 10-Year and 2-Year Treasuries A steepening yield curve suggests a stronger economic growth and rising inflation. Image: CNBC
U.S. Real Yield Curve and 2-Year/30-Year U.S. Real Yield Curve Economic stress remains as the U.S. real yield curve remains in negative territory. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
MSCI USA Cyclical Sectors-Defensive Sectors Spread USD Index vs. 2-Year/30-Year U.S. Treasury Yield Curve This chart suggests that cyclical outperformance of defensives tends to be correlated with the shape of the 2-year/30-year U.S. Treasury yield curve. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
Expected Fed Funds Rate, Negative Interest Rates and 2-Year Treasury Yield Negative U.S. yields are in sight, as Fed funds futures for June 2021 imply an expected negative rate of -0.03%. Image: Fidelity Investments
Divergence Between the 2-Year U.S. Treasury Yield and the U.S. Dollar Trump wants a weaker US dollar, but could the dollar weaken in the coming months? Image: Legg Mason
U.S. Rates – Treasury Yield Forecasts Deutsche Bank forecasts the 10-year UST yield at 4.65% by year-end 2025, driven by potential increased tariffs, fiscal easing and deregulation, which may lead to stronger economic growth and higher inflation. Image: Deutsche Bank