U.S. High-Yield Spreads vs. Corporate Cash Flow as % of Debt (Leading Indicator) Rising AI infrastructure spending and swelling debt are draining liquidity, setting the stage for weaker cash-flow-to-debt ratios in 2026 and wider credit spreads across the sector. Image: Bloomberg
U.S. Real GDP Growth Goldman Sachs sees the U.S. extending its growth lead in 2026, forecasting GDP to rise 2.6%, comfortably ahead of consensus thanks to contained inflation and a resilient jobs market. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Valuation – PEG Ratio between U.S. and Europe As equity returns broaden in 2025, the PEG ratio gap between the U.S. and the rest of the world is narrowing. This convergence in growth-adjusted valuations is likely to extend into 2026, even if U.S. valuations remain lofty. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Indexed Return of Cyclicals vs. Defensives and Consensus Forward 4-Quarter U.S. GDP Growth The relative performance of cyclical stocks versus defensives currently signals market expectations for real U.S. GDP growth of 2%, below Goldman Sachs’ 2.6% forecast for 2026. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Probability of U.S. Recession Calculated from the Yield Curve The probability of U.S. recession in 12 months, calculated from the yield curve, stands at 17.1%. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Impact of U.S. Quarter-Over-Quarter Annualized GDP Growth Momentum looks set to build for the U.S. economy in 2026, driven by fading tariffs, fresh tax cuts, and easier financial conditions. Still, inflation remains the wildcard that could cloud an otherwise brighter growth outlook. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Household Wealth Stock market gains over the past six years have boosted U.S. household wealth and powered consumer spending, while also heightening vulnerability if markets fall. Image: Deutsche Bank
U.S. Tech and S&P 500 – 1-Year Total Return Performance to Peak Past market bubbles often ended with explosive last-year rallies, far outpacing normal bull market returns. That kind of blow-off surge just isn’t happening in U.S. tech or the S&P 500 right now. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Rolling 9-Week Flows into U.S. Equity ETFs and Mutual Funds Investors keep buying the dip, pouring nearly $100 billion into U.S. equity mutual funds and ETFs over the past nine weeks, convinced the bull market still has room to run. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Volatility – U.S. Options Expiration $7.1 trillion in options notional value is set to expire today, marking the largest expiration on record and setting the stage for fresh market volatility. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Survey – Where Do You Expect 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yields to Be One Year from Now? Deutsche Bank’s latest survey shows that 52% of participants expect the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to rise above 4.25% next year, with the bank’s strategists calling for 4.45% by the end of 2026. Image: Deutsche Bank