Alternative Measures of Consumer Activity

Alternative Measures of Consumer Activity Chart suggesting that activity is starting to pick up in the U.S., as lockdowns are easing after weeks of restrictions. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

China Current Activity Indicator and GDP

China Current Activity Indicator (CAI) and GDP The China current activity indicator (CAI) suggests a sharp recovery, after a deep contraction in the first quarter. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Chicago Fed National Activity Index and Recessions

Chicago Fed National Activity Index and Recessions The Chicago Fed National Activity Index fall to -0.35 in December, and stayed at a negative reading. Anything negative is below-average growth. In recent history, anything at or below -0.7 (red line) was equivalent to a recession. “A zero value for the index indicates that the national economy is expanding…

U.S. Freight Shipping Activity

U.S. Freight Shipping Activity The New York Fed’s manufacturing report suggests a rebound in freight shipping activity this year. Image: Quill Intelligence, LLC