Labor Costs Lead Core Inflation by 6 Months Historically, U.S. labor costs have been a good leading indicator of core inflation, because when labor costs rise, companies tend to increase their prices. Image: Legg Mason
S&P 500 Performance Around First Fed Cut When the U.S. economy grows and monetary easing comes without recession risk, large-cap equities usually lead, fueled by lower borrowing costs, rising profitability, and stable economic conditions. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Fed Funds Rate and S&P 500 TTM EPS Growth Strong EPS growth, combined with Fed rate cuts, often fuels equities by reducing funding costs, boosting investment and sustaining earnings momentum—the classic drivers of bull markets. Image: TS Lombard
Oil Prices and Events Higher oil prices function like a tax, reducing disposable income and increasing business costs, which can slow growth or cause recessions. However, these spikes are typically brief as demand falls and markets adjust accordingly. Image: Real Investment Advice
U.S. Dollar Around Fed Cuts Typically, the U.S. dollar experiences weakness before the Fed’s initial rate cut, followed by possible strengthening or stabilization as the easing cycle progresses. Image: TS Lombard
Performance of the Magnificent Seven Stocks Following a period of underperformance, the Mag-7 index has almost caught up to the S&P 500, reflecting regained investor confidence in U.S. AI giants despite the challenges posed by DeepSeek’s low-cost AI innovation. Image: Deutsche Bank
Tariffs Impact on YoY U.S. GDP Growth Over the next three years, higher tariffs are expected to slow U.S. GDP growth by 1.7%, as they raise costs for consumers and businesses, fuel inflation, and drag on economic expansion. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Credit Card Debt Rising credit card debt shows weakened repayment discipline and financial strain from inflation in basic living costs, creating a feedback loop where increased debt and fees further hinder consumers’ ability to restore financial stability. Image: Yahoo Finance
S&P 500 vs. 60/40 Portfolio Since 2020, the S&P 500 has delivered higher returns than the 60/40 portfolio but with greater volatility, while the 60/40 portfolio has provided more stability at the cost of lower overall gains. Image: Bloomberg
The Cost of a Barrel of Oil in Real U.S. Dollar Terms While short-term oil price shocks can create significant economic disruptions and drive inflation higher, oil prices over the long run typically track the general rate of inflation. Image: Deutsche Bank
After-Tax Nonfinancial Corporate Profits as Share of Gross Value Added While U.S. corporate profits fell in Q1 2025 due to higher costs and economic uncertainty, they remain historically high, reflecting both the strength and the vulnerability of large companies in the current economic climate. Image: Bloomberg