Inflation – U.S. CPI Forecasts With inflation high, the Fed’s interest rate cut decisions require a delicate balance between price stability, economic expansion and employment support. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Hedge Funds’ Cyclical vs. Defensive Positioning During economic expansion, investors favor cyclicals over defensives. The current low hedge fund exposure to cyclical vs. defensive sectors may present a potential opportunity for contrarian investors. Image: BofA Global Research
Fed Funds vs. Private Sector Wage Growth The last three U.S. economic expansions ended with the Federal Reserve hiking to curb wage growth, but not this time. That’s quite bullish. Image: BofA Global Research
U.S. Wage Growth and Business Cycles Despite the U.S. economic expansion is now the longest in history, wage growth has been much slower during this business cycle than in previous cycles. Image: CNBC
U.S. GDP Growth and Business Cycles Despite the current U.S. economic expansion is the longest ever, GDP growth has been much slower during this business cycle than in previous cycles. Image: CNBC
Output Gap and Stages of the U.S. Business Cycle Despite gloomy headlines, this chart suggests that the U.S. economic expansion is still intact. Image: BlackRock Investment Institute
Probability of U.S. Recession in 12 Months Based on the Slope of the Yield Curve The yield curve slope suggests odds of a recession in the next 12 months at less than 30% in the U.S., and the continuation of economic expansion. Image: NBF Economics and Strategy
S&P 500 – U.S. Broad Market Net Forward Profit Margin Elevated profit margins in the U.S. broad market, which continue to show forward-looking expansion, point to underlying economic resilience and do not align with the start of a severe, systemic labor market downturn. Image: TS Lombard
ISM Manufacturing Index vs. Semiconductors Semiconductors are discounting a substantial rise in the U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI, which suggests a robust expansion in manufacturing activity and overall economic growth. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
ISM Manufacturing Index vs. ISM Non-Manufacturing Index The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index increased to 55.5% in January and suggests faster expansion in January than in December. Image: Oxford Economics
NFIB Expected Credit Conditions NFIB Expected Credit Conditions are improving and suggest that the U.S. expansion still has room to run. Source: Longview Economics