Hedge Funds’ Cyclical vs. Defensive Positioning

Hedge Funds’ Cyclical vs. Defensive Positioning During economic expansion, investors favor cyclicals over defensives. The current low hedge fund exposure to cyclical vs. defensive sectors may present a potential opportunity for contrarian investors. Image: BofA Global Research

Fed Funds vs. Private Sector Wage Growth

Fed Funds vs. Private Sector Wage Growth The last three U.S. economic expansions ended with the Federal Reserve hiking to curb wage growth, but not this time. That’s quite bullish. Image: BofA Global Research

U.S. Wage Growth and Business Cycles

U.S. Wage Growth and Business Cycles Despite the U.S. economic expansion is now the longest in history, wage growth has been much slower during this business cycle than in previous cycles. Image: CNBC

U.S. GDP Growth and Business Cycles

U.S. GDP Growth and Business Cycles Despite the current U.S. economic expansion is the longest ever, GDP growth has been much slower during this business cycle than in previous cycles. Image: CNBC

Output Gap and Stages of the U.S. Business Cycle

Output Gap and Stages of the U.S. Business Cycle Despite gloomy headlines, this chart suggests that the U.S. economic expansion is still intact. Image: BlackRock Investment Institute

ISM Manufacturing Index and SOX Philadelphia Semiconductor Index

ISM Manufacturing Index vs. Semiconductors Semiconductors are discounting a substantial rise in the U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI, which suggests a robust expansion in manufacturing activity and overall economic growth. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy

NFIB Expected Credit Conditions

NFIB Expected Credit Conditions NFIB Expected Credit Conditions are improving and suggest that the U.S. expansion still has room to run. Source: Longview Economics

What Will Cause The Next Recession – Robert Shiller On Human Behavior

What Will Cause The Next Recession – Robert Shiller On Human Behavior Robert Shiller is a professor at Yale University and Nobel Prize winner in Economics in 2013. What are the biggest risks right now on the next recession? 1) Housing market, 2) Bull stock market, 3) Interest rates and 4) Record expansion. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rUYk2DA8PH8