Output Gap and Stages of the U.S. Business Cycle
Output Gap and Stages of the U.S. Business Cycle Despite gloomy headlines, this chart suggests that the U.S. economic expansion is still intact. Image: BlackRock Investment Institute
Probability of U.S. Recession in 12 Months Based on the Slope of the Yield Curve
Probability of U.S. Recession in 12 Months Based on the Slope of the Yield Curve The yield curve slope suggests odds of a recession in the next 12 months at less than 30% in the U.S., and the continuation of economic expansion. Image: NBF Economics and Strategy
ISM Manufacturing Index vs. ISM Non-Manufacturing Index
ISM Manufacturing Index vs. ISM Non-Manufacturing Index The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index increased to 55.5% in January and suggests faster expansion in January than in December. Image: Oxford Economics
NFIB Expected Credit Conditions
NFIB Expected Credit Conditions NFIB Expected Credit Conditions are improving and suggest that the U.S. expansion still has room to run. Source: Longview Economics
What Will Cause The Next Recession – Robert Shiller On Human Behavior
What Will Cause The Next Recession – Robert Shiller On Human Behavior Robert Shiller is a professor at Yale University and Nobel Prize winner in Economics in 2013. What are the biggest risks right now on the next recession? 1) Housing market, 2) Bull stock market, 3) Interest rates and 4) Record expansion. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rUYk2DA8PH8