Search Results for: indicator

U.S. Manufacturing PMI and Global Leading Indicator Leading indicators are turning higher, signaling a growing chance of a global cyclical upswing into the first half of 2026. Image: Bloomberg

S&P 500 Index and Barclays Equity Timing Indicator Barclays’ Equity Timing Indicator—a gauge of 19 market and economic signals—is tilting bullish, implying an 82% chance the S&P 500 rises over the next two months, with past setups since 2015 delivering roughly 4% on average. Image: Bloomberg

U.S. Equity Sentiment Indicator vs. Rolling 6-Month S&P 500 Return While Goldman Sachs’ U.S. Equity Sentiment Indicator sits at -0.3, investors still have cash to put to work, leaving room for a cautiously bullish outlook in the near term. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Each Component of the Speculative Trading Indicator Screens as Elevated vs. History All three core components of Goldman Sachs’s speculative trading indicator—unprofitable, penny, and high EV/sales stocks—are trading near the extreme upper deciles, reflecting a highly speculative market environment right now. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Average S&P 500 Price Returns Following Sharp Increases in Speculative Trading Indicator Sharp increases in speculative trading activity serve as a leading indicator of a market cycle marked initially by above-average returns, followed later by a heightened risk of downturns. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Sentiment Indicator – Investor Equity Positions Hedge funds are currently more bullish on the market compared to other investor categories, which remain cautious and have not significantly increased their market participation. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Sahm Rule Recession Indicator – U.S. Unemployment Rate A drop in the Sahm Rule indicator below 0.5 is a positive sign, as it suggests the rule is not currently signaling a U.S. recession—a generally reassuring indicator for economic health. Image: Bloomberg

U.S. Current Activity Indicator U.S. soft data and growth signals have improved slightly, largely due to a more favorable trade policy outlook following the partial rollback of tariffs. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Market Sentiment Indicator Morgan Stanley’s market sentiment indicator has recently turned positive, signaling a shift towards a risk-on appetite after maintaining a neutral stance. Image: Morgan Stanley Research

Copper to Gold Ratio and U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield (Leading Indicator) The copper/gold ratio and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield are showing signs of a persistent divergence. Image: Morgan Stanley Research

Fed Funds vs. 2-Year U.S. Treasury Yield (Leading Indicator) The current 2-year U.S. Treasury yield, sitting below the fed funds rate, indicates that the Fed’s monetary policy is restrictive. Historically, the 2-year yield tends to lead the fed funds rate by approximately 20 weeks. Image: Bloomberg