U.S. ISM New Orders vs. S&P 500 NTM EPS Growth (Leading Indicator)
U.S. ISM New Orders vs. S&P 500 NTM EPS Growth (Leading Indicator) Should U.S. equity investors expect -10% earnings growth in 2023? Image: KKR & Co.
U.S. ISM New Orders vs. S&P 500 NTM EPS Growth (Leading Indicator) Should U.S. equity investors expect -10% earnings growth in 2023? Image: KKR & Co.
Philly Fed Future Nominal Orders vs. S&P 500 12-Months Forward EPS (Leading Indicator) A severe contraction in earnings growth should hurt U.S. stocks in 2023. Image: Nordea and Macrobond
U.S. High Yield vs. Investment Grade Returns and Conference Board U.S. Leading Index Historically, the outperformance of high yield bonds relative to investment grade bonds has followed the Conference Board U.S. Leading Index. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
Recession – Conference Board Leading Economic Index vs. U.S. Industrial Production The Conference Board Leading Economic Index suggests a contraction in U.S. industrial production. Image: BofA Global Research
Earnings – Global Manufacturing PMI New Orders vs. World Trailing 12-Month EPS (Leading Indicator) Global manufacturing PMI new orders tend to lead world EPS growth by 12 months. Image: BofA Global Research
Recession – U.S. Real GDP and Financial Conditions Index (Leading Indicator) Financial conditions tend to lead U.S. real GDP by 3 months. Image: Alpine Macro
U.S. ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid vs. U.S. CPI Inflation (Leading Indicator) The U.S. ISM manufacturing prices paid index tends lead U.S. inflation by 3 months. Image: Macro Markets Daily
Yield Curve vs. VIX (Leading Indicator) U.S. equity investors should expect more volatility ahead, as the yield curve tends to lead the VIX by three years. Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy
Earnings – S&P 500 Trailing 12-Month Net Income Growth vs. Fed Funds Rate Deviation from Trend (Leading Indicator) The change in fed funds rate suggests an earnings recession. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
Brent Crude Oil and Saudi Arabia Stock Market (Leading Indicator) Will oil prices remain high as global demand for oil continues to rise? Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy