The Long-Term Correlation Between U.S. Stocks and U.S. Interest Rates Rising interest rates tend to have a negative effect on earnings and the stock market. Image: Real Investment Advice
Real U.S. 30-Year Interest Rates How long will real U.S. 30-year interest rates remain negative? Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Corporate Profits – S&P 500 Index Trailing 12-Mo. Operating Margin and U.S. CPI Less U.S. PPI The gap between CPI and PPI is deeply negative. Are U.S. coporate profits at risk in the next 12 months? Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
S&P 500 Returns and Real Rates Correlation The correlation between S&P 500 returns and real rates has turned negative. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Fed Funds Futures Curve (Interest Rates) For the first time, traders are starting to price in negative U.S. interest rates for first time. Image: The Daily Shot
U.S. Unemployment Rate Minus U.S. Natural Rate of Unemployment and Recessions The unemployment rate minus the natural rate of unemployment has been negative for 34 months, and tends to bottom before a recession.
U.S. Real Interest Rates and Recessions Currently, U.S. real interest rates are negative. In recent history, real interest rates were at least above 1.8% (orange line) before a recession.
ECB Balance Sheet vs. ECB Deposit Rate It could be difficult to push rates further into negative territory without affecting the profitability and financing capacity of Eurozone banks. Image: Jeroen Blokland
Global Negative Yielding Bonds This chart shows all bonds in the world at negative interest rates. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Negative Yielding Bonds In the World Now, 25% of all bonds in the world trade at negative interest rates. Keep in mind that raising interest rates in the future could be painful for bond investors. Image: Deutsche Bank Global Research
The Amount of Outstanding Negative-Yielding Debt since 2009 Investors are paying governments for the privilege of holding their bonds and are losing so much money in real terms. Raising interest rates in the future could be painful for bond investors. Image: Jeroen Blokland, Bloomberg