Major Oil Supply Disruptions
Major Oil Supply Disruptions As a reminder, disruptions in the oil market have always led to higher oil prices. Image: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research
Major Oil Supply Disruptions As a reminder, disruptions in the oil market have always led to higher oil prices. Image: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research
S&P 500 Returns Following Major Geopolitical Events History shows the same script in over 20 major events since WWII: markets snap back quicker than feared, and those who hold their nerve often win. Panic usually hurts more than the shock itself. Image: Real Investment Advice
Peak to Trough in the S&P 500 Around Spikes in the Geopolitical Risk Index Most geopolitical shocks haven’t caused lasting market impacts. Oil tends to surge when tensions rise in the Middle East, gold gets a lift, Treasuries draw buyers unless energy prices spiral, and equities typically retreat. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 / WTI Spot Price, Detrended The roughly 30-year cycle in the relationship between U.S. stock market returns and oil prices highlights periods when stocks are either expensive or cheap relative to oil. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
G10 FX Carry Trade Index The Bank of Japan’s recent actions caused market turmoil termed an “ugly deleveraging event,” reflecting ongoing economic challenges in Japan. Navigating a post-deflationary landscape adds complexity to the situation. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Performance – What Asset Class Do You Think Will Outperform in 2021? FMS investors expect emerging markets, the S&P 500 and oil to outperform in 2021. Image: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey