University of Michigan Current Economic Conditions Index and Recessions This chart shows that historical drops of more than -20 points in consumer confidence current conditions have signaled recessions since 1979. The current drop stands at -15.9 points. Image: Knowledge Leaders Capital
Presidential Election – U.S. Presidential Score Sheet for the Final Year of the First Term Historically, a U.S. president is re-elected when at least consumer confidence and the unemployment rate improve. Image: BofA Merrill Lynch
Lower Returns for Stocks in the Next 12 Months? Morgan Stanley’s cyclical indicator is flagging “downturn.” The yield curve’s slope, debt issuance, consumer confidence, economic and financial markets data are aggregated in Morgan Stanley’s cyclical indicator. The entry into the “downturn” phase suggests lower returns for stocks and risky assets in the next 12 months. Image:…
GS Financial Conditions Index With rates lower and equities climbing, looser US financial conditions are giving both consumer spending and business investment a stronger tailwind. Confidence often strengthens in step. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research