Late-cycle Worries
Late-cycle Worries Consumers are currently more optimistic today than about the future. That’s worrying because consumer spending contributes 70% of total U.S. production. Image: Deutsche Bank
Late-cycle Worries Consumers are currently more optimistic today than about the future. That’s worrying because consumer spending contributes 70% of total U.S. production. Image: Deutsche Bank
How Have Real Personal Consumption Expenditures Declined Ahead Of Every Recession? Consumer spending drives the US economy. Historically, Real Personal Consumption Expenditures, which accounts for about 70% of GDP, decline before a recession. That’s not the case today. So, a recession may not be imminent in this late-cycle expansion.
Visualizing How Americans Spend Their Money The Consumer Expenditure Survey is a Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) survey that collects information on the buying habits of U.S. consumers. Image: howmuch.net
Real U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures Y/Y Growth In recent quarters, U.S. consumers have continued to reallocate spending toward experience‑driven categories like travel, dining and recreation, even as overall services spending growth has cooled. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Inflation – Cleveland Median CPI vs. M2 Savings Deposits When fiscal policy drives money creation, inflation risk jumps. Spending and liquidity rise together, and before long, too much money chases too few goods. Recent U.S. money trends point toward price pressures ahead. Image: Bloomberg