MSCI USA Cyclical Sectors-Defensive Sectors Spread USD Index vs. 2-Year/30-Year U.S. Treasury Yield Curve This chart suggests that cyclical outperformance of defensives tends to be correlated with the shape of the 2-year/30-year U.S. Treasury yield curve. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
ISM Manufacturing PMI vs. Cyclicals/Defensives The outperformance of U.S. cyclicals could suggest that the U.S. economic activity has bottomed. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
Cyclicals to Defensive Stock Ratio and Treasury Bonds Market internals, the preference for large over small and quality over junk, suggest that the recovery will be modest. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
Small Cap Cyclical Sectors vs. Defensive Sectors Median Forward P/E Relative valuations for small-cap cyclicals versus small-cap defensives also remain near the 20-year lows. Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy
U.S. Cyclicals/Defensives vs. ISM Manufacturing PMI Chart showing the large divergence between U.S. cyclicals/defensives and the ISM Manufacturing PMI. Eventually, the gap should close soon. Image: Topdown Charts
U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield and Euro Area Cyclicals Relative to Defensives Chart suggesting that euro area cyclicals outperform defensives, when U.S. bond yields rise. Image: Credit Suisse Research
S&P 500 Cyclicals Relative to Defensives Chart suggesting that S&P 500 cyclicals could outperform defensives in 2020, based on higher U.S. nominal GDP growth. Image: Stifel
Rallies in World Cyclicals vs. Defensives Since the global financial crisis, average rallies in world cyclicals vs. defensives have lasted only four months. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Cyclical/Defensive Equities Ratio and 10-Year Treasury Yield The chart shows the correlation between the cyclical/defensive equities ratio and the 10-year treasury yield, signaling an economic slowdown. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index and S&P 500 Cyclicals vs. Defensives Chart showing that U.S. cyclicals sectors relative to defensive sectors are still pricing in a strong rebound in growth (R = 0.82). Image: Deutsche Bank Global Research
Secular Growth Stocks Relative to Defensive Stocks More downside ahead? This chart suggests that secular growth stocks are at risk. Image: Morgan Stanley Research