Valuation – 10-Year U.S. Treasury Real Yield vs. S&P 500 Forward Price/Earnings Ratio Despite higher real rates, the S&P 500’s valuation remains elevated. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
Valuation – U.S. 10-Year Real Yield and MSCI World Index Forward Price/Earnings Ratio The price of global equities is expected to fall, if U.S. real yields rise. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
Earnings Price Yield for S&P 500 Minus Maturity of 10-Year Treasuries This chart suggests that equities are more attractive relative to fixed income. But the equity risk does not disappear because the spread (earnings yield minus Treasury yield) is positive. Image: Bhirud Associates
Valuation – S&P 500 Fwd 12-Month P/E Multiple vs. EPS Yield Gap vs. Real 10-Year U.S. Treasury So far in 2026, U.S. equities have digested higher rates mostly through multiple compression, leaving the valuation gap to bonds largely intact. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. 10-Year Real Yield The rise in the U.S. 10-year real yield anchors valuations: it won’t drag prices lower if earnings keep surging, but it caps multiple expansion and raises the odds of P/E compression if growth disappoints. Image: J.P. Morgan
Real 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield Despite rising 10-year real U.S. Treasury yields indicating tighter financial conditions, the stock market remains unaffected due to favorable economic indicators, strong corporate earnings forecasts, and anticipated supportive monetary policy. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Earnings Revisions Breadth vs. S&P 500 YoY With yields no longer supporting high valuations, earnings growth is expected to be the main factor driving U.S. equity returns in the near future. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
Valuation – S&P 500 P/E, S&P Equity Risk Premium and U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yields Significant multiple expansion in the absence of a corresponding increase in earnings growth can generally be a warning sign that U.S. stocks are getting too expensive. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
World Equities and U.S. 10-Year Treasury Bond Yield Chart suggesting to sell stocks if the earnings yield spread reaches 2.5%. Image: BCA Research
U.S. Corporate Profits and 10Y-3M Yield Curve While the divergence between large-cap profits and the rest of the economy is the widest on record, the steepening yield curve suggests an earnings rebound. Image: BofA Global Research
Valuation of the S&P 500 and the Top 5 Stocks Relative to Interest Rates The earnings yield gap for the top 5 stocks is 191 bp, just above the 40-year average of 144 bp. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research