U.S. Debt Held by Public as Share of GDP Rising U.S. federal debt could lead to higher interest payments, reduced investment and growth, fewer jobs, lower wages, and less flexibility for the government to respond to future challenges. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Impact of Higher Tariffs on the U.S. Core PCE Price Index The coming inflation rebound is expected be limited in scope and duration, meaning it is unlikely to trigger the kind of persistent inflation psychology that can drive a sustained wage-price spiral. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Core PCE Inflation Forecasts Goldman Sachs forecasts that U.S. core PCE inflation will reach 3.8% by December 2025. Although inflation is projected to stay above the Fed’s 2% target, wage pressures are cooling and the labor market remains robust. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Gold While the outlook for gold remains bullish due to falling interest rates and sustained central bank purchases, it is currently viewed as expensive when compared to oil prices and the average wage of a U.S. worker. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
S&P 500 Share Buybacks $7.6 trillion of S&P 500 share buybacks over the last 10 years. While buybacks can benefit shareholders, critics argue that funds could have been better spent on research, development, and employee wages. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Fed Funds Rate vs. U.S. Job Openings (JOLTS) Declining wage growth and employment would allow the Fed to make substantial cuts in interest rates. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Labor Market – U.S. Jobs-Workers Gap A tight labor market contributes to wage inflation. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Real U.S. Average Hourly Earnings and Recessions Is a recession likely in the United States if real wage growth remains negative by summer? Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Fed Funds vs. NFIB Small Business Jobs Hard to Fill Historically, higher wage inflation is associated with higher Fed funds. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
U.S. Housing – Existing Home Sales Price U.S. house prices rise much faster than wages and become too expensive for most young people. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Inequality – Monthly Income After Tax Minus Average Monthly Expenditures Greatest economy ever? Despite increasing wage growth and a low unemployment rate, half of the U.S. population spends more than their income. Image: Deutsche Bank Global Research