S&P 500 Valuation and Equity Risk Premium

S&P 500 Valuation and Equity Risk Premium This chart shows that the equity risk premium (earnings yield less 10-year Treasury yield) has declined to 3.9%. Image: Fidelity Investments

Valuation – S&P 500 Index Forward P/E Ratio

Valuation – S&P 500 Index Forward P/E Ratio The market is no bargain: the S&P 500 sits at 23 times forward earnings, versus 16 on average over two decades, while the Magnificent Seven stretch valuations even further at 31. Image: Bloomberg

S&P 500 Performance vs. Forward EPS

S&P 500 Performance vs. Forward EPS While long-term earnings are essential for driving stock prices over time, the influence of rising long-term yields cannot be overlooked. Image: Evercore ISI

Time Lags Between Indicators and Recessions

Time Lags Between Indicators and Recessions Chart showing that credit standards, earnings and the yield curve are the earliest recession indicators. Image: Oxford Economics