Search Results for: negative rate

Central Bank Asset Purchases The pace of global central bank purchases is expected to turn negative next year. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy

GWIM Macro Sentiment Barometer The GWIM macro sentiment barometer has turned negative. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy

Valuation – Average Forward P/E in Core PCE Inflation Ranges Since 1976​ Historically, inflation generally had a negative impact on valuations when core PCE approached 2%, in the anticipation of rate hikes. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Correlation Between S&P 500 Index and S&P 500 Equal Weighted Index The S&P 500 is the most negatively correlated to the S&P 500 equal weighted index since 1999, 2000 and 2017. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy

A Basket of Inflation Expectations The Fed’s unlimited quantitative easing program lifts inflation expectations, limiting the expansionary effects of negative interest rates. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond

S&P 500 Dividend Futures Curve vs. 2019 Dividends The dividend futures market may be too negative, as it was the case in 2008. Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy

Total Returns by Decade History suggests that over a 10-year time horizon, returns are rarely negative. Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy

Inequality – Net Saving by Wealth Class in the U.S. This chart shows that the savings rate for the bottom 90% of the U.S. population is negative since the 1990s. Image: Deutsche Bank Global Research

Chicago Fed National Activity Index and Recessions The Chicago Fed National Activity Index fall to -0.35 in December, and stayed at a negative reading. Anything negative is below-average growth. In recent history, anything at or below -0.7 (red line) was equivalent to a recession. “A zero value for the index indicates that the national economy is expanding…

Cash – Banknotes and Coins in Circulation as a Percentage of GDP This chart suggests that negative interest rates can increase the demand for cash. Image: Deutsche Bank Global Research

S&P 500 vs. 12-Month Forward EPS Estimate Chart suggesting that the 52-week rate-of-change in forward EPS could turn negative. Image: Lohman Econometrics