U.S. Recession and Presidential Re-election If there isn’t a recession ahead of the U.S. presidential re-election, presidents have won every time since the First World War. The spreadsheet also shows that five of the seven times there was a recession, the current U.S. President lost the re-election. You may also like “Unemployment and U.S. Presidential…
S&P 500 Four-Year Presidential Cycle Midterm election years tend to shake up U.S. markets, as policy risks and political noise rise before voters hit the polls. Uncertainty is the one asset every portfolio gets stuck with, and election season always adds more to the mix. Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 500 Quarterly Returns Based on the Four-Year Presidential Cycle Midterm election years have a rough reputation. Q2 is usually the weakest quarter in the presidential cycle for U.S. stocks. With Q1 set to close deeply in the red, could this time be the exception? Image: Carson Investment Research
Pullbacks and Returns a Year Off the Lows for the S&P 500 Index Based on the 4-Year Presidential Cycle Midterm election years are rarely smooth sailing for U.S. stocks. Since 1950, the S&P 500 has on average tumbled 17.5% from its highs, the sharpest swoon in the four-year presidential cycle. Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 500 Index Returns Based on 4-Year Presidential Cycle Midterm election years rarely bring comfort to investors, but history still leans bullish. U.S. stocks tend to outperform in a President’s second term, as many view market dips as buying opportunities before the usual third-year rally. Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 500 Performance in Election Years Bulls are smiling as December is one of the most promising months for U.S. stocks during a presidential election year, with gains occurring 83.3% of the time and an average return of 1.3% since 1950. Image: Carson Investment Research
VIX Indexed to Election Day Equity implied volatility typically increases leading up to U.S. presidential elections and decreases afterward, mirroring the market’s reaction to political uncertainty and its resolution. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Returns After the Election The U.S. stock market has shown a notable tendency to perform well following presidential elections. In fact, after the last ten elections, stocks have increased in value nine times, with a median gain of 17.2% one year later. Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 500 Around U.S. Election Date Following the 2020 presidential election, the U.S. stock market exhibited robust growth. Can investors expect a similar trend after the 2024 election? Image: Deutsche Bank
S&P 500 Monthly Returns and Percentage of Time Up – Presidential Cycle Year 4 Seasonality provides valuable insights into stock market trends. Historically, after experiencing weaknesses in September and October during election years, the S&P 500 tends to rebound with strong returns in November and December. Image: BofA Global Research
Elections – U.S. Voting Age Population Younger generations, specifically Millennials and Generation Z, are projected to become the new majority voting bloc in the upcoming 2024 U.S. presidential election, marking a significant generational shift in the electorate. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy