Earnings Estimate Progression The consensus growth estimate for Q3 earnings stands at -3.2%, but the earnings recovery seems better than 2016. The Fed’s dovish pivot and low interest rates should continue to support the U.S. stock market. Image: Fidelity Investments
Allocation to Cash and Recession Probability This chart shows the correlation between allocation to cash and the NY Fed 12-month ahead recession probability indicator. Image: Barclays Research
One of the Best Recession Indicator The Fed is cutting rates and the 10-year rate is inverted to Fed funds. Image: Real Investment Advice
U.S. Monetary Policy and Recession This chart shows the U.S. monetary policy and two recession forecasting models over time (Fed policy rate, Atlanta Fed shadow Fed funds rate, nominal R-Star, Fed funds curve). Image: Fidelity Investments
Who Owns Different Countries’ Government Bonds? About 70% of the U.S. national debt is owned by domestic government, institutions investors and the Federal Reserve. Image: Deutsche Bank Global Research
U.S. Long-Term Budget Outlook Large budget deficits over the next 30 years could boost federal debt to unprecedented levels. Image: Congressional Budget Office
Total U.S. Household Debt Balance and Its Composition Total U.S. household debt increased by $192 billion (1.4%) to $13.86 trillion in Q2 2019. Image: New York Fed Consumer Credit Panel
U.S. Recession Probability and the U.S. Dollar The chart shows the correlation between the NY Fed probability of U.S. recession and the U.S. dollar. Image: BofA Merrill Lynch
U.S. Dollar and Weak Global Growth This spreadsheet shows that Fed policy easing can weaken the U.S. dollar in times of weak global growth. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Probability of US Recession Predicted by Treasury Spread Probability of US recession in the next 12 months: 31.48% Image: Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Wage Growth, Monetary Policy and S&P 500 When the spread between wage growth and the Fed funds rate is wide, it is generally positive for equities. Image: Topdown Charts